2023-09-19 13:34:47
Oil soared to its highest value in 10 months – extending a powerful rally that could reignite inflation – as OPEC+ supply cuts tightened the market, with Saudi Arabia’s energy minister avoiding any change of course.
The global benchmark Brent today, Tuesday, surpassed 95 dollars per barrel for the first time since November last year. The tighter market has prompted a flurry of predictions that $100 oil could soon return, from industry heavyweights like Chevron Corp. CEO Mike Wirth to traditional pessimists at Citigroup Inc. .
We remember that the annual oil production target set out in Angola’s General State Budget (OGE) 2023 is 1,180,000 barrels/day at an average price of USD 75/barrel. According to official data, oil production in Angola reached 1.2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2023. At the current oil price of 95 dollars, the budgetary gain amounts to 720 million dollars per month in relation to forecasts from the OGE.
The most recent rise in oil has been marked by significant movements in timespreads, one of the metrics most closely monitored by the market. Brent’s three-month spread expanded to more than $4 per barrel, a bullish pattern.
Since mid-June, oil has risen by about a quarter, with Riyadh and Moscow joining efforts to reduce exports in an attempt to deplete inventories and drive a price recovery.
A more favorable outlook in the world’s two largest economies – the United States and China – has also supported this advance. The relentless rise in oil has been one of the most striking features of commodity markets in the third quarter. “Given the constructive bases and more positive sentiment, we could see ICE Brent surpass 100 dollars per barrel in the not too distant future,” ING said in a report sent by email. “However, such a move would likely be unsustainable.”
On Monday, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a conference in Canada that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was working to keep markets stable and improve energy security, without targeting a specific price. . Production plans will be reviewed every month, he said.
Rising energy costs look set to increase inflationary pressures, complicating the task for top central bankers, many of whom have just presided over a series of rate hikes aimed at containing price gains. It will be an important week for monetary policy decisions, with multiple meetings, including one at the Federal Reserve.
Rising oil prices also pose a challenge for the Biden administration ahead of the presidential election, with more expensive oil fueling higher gasoline prices, a key issue for some U.S. voters. Average retail prices for motor fuel have already reached a seasonal record in data since 2004.
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