2024-01-04 13:13:54
MONDE – It’s official: since January 1, 2024, the Brics group, initially made up of five “emerging” powers, now has 10 members. In August 2023, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) announced the accession of six new members: Iran, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and Arab Emirates United. In a letter addressed to the leaders of the 5 founding countries, the new Argentine president, Javier Milei, announced that Buenos Aires will ultimately not join this alliance. The moment is not “opportune”, he explained, he who openly criticized the members of the Brics during his electoral campaign and proclaimed his total alignment with “the free nations of the West”. A shortfall for the Brics which can still count on the five new members to now represent and promote a “multipolar world order”.
If the acronym “BRIC” (for Brazil, Russia, India and China) appeared in 2001, this political and economic alliance was only formed in 2009, in the aftermath of the financial crisis. South Africa, host of the last summit in August, only joined the bloc in 2011, then renamed Brics. This alliance intends to constitute an alternative to Western hegemony on a geopolitical, economic and even financial level by advocating a common currency.
L’Argentine de Milei out
During the last summit in Johannesburg, during which several subjects such as dedollarization and multilateralism were discussed, the Brics agreed to integrate new countries into the alliance. China and Russia had openly advocated for this expansion with the aim of fostering a “multipolar” and “multilateral” world order. Out of around forty applications, six were selected: Iran, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “Membership will take effect from January 1, 2024,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Until then, Argentina supported membership in the alliance, through its former president, Alberto Fernandez. For Buenos Aires, this was an opportunity to reach new markets. But the election in December of Javier Milei changed the situation. Throughout his presidential campaign, the self-described anarcho-capitalist criticized countries governed “by communism” like China and Russia, even affirming his intention not to maintain diplomatic relations with them.
In addition to this, Javier Milei proclaimed his alignment with the “free nations of the West”, particularly the United States. Since his rise to power, he has also advocated the dollarization of the national currency, an approach in total disagreement with that of the BRICS, which above all wish to reduce the influence of the dollar in the international economy.
In a letter sent to the bloc’s leaders, he confirmed a turnaround as feared as it was predictable since his election. Javier Milei justified the decision by saying that the time was not right for his country, in the midst of an economic crisis, to be a full member of the BRICS. He nevertheless qualified the positions expressed during his campaign, telling Lula da Silva, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin and Cyril Ramaphosa of his desire to “intensify bilateral ties” and increase “trade flows”.
More than 35% of global GDP
If the decision makes Argentines cringe, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Diana Mondino, reaffirms the bipolar vision of her president, expressing her optimism about future agreements with “Western democracies and the free world”. At the beginning of December, she clarified that Milei’s government would mainly work on its accession to the OECD.
A geopolitical vision which contrasts with the realism demonstrated by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or even Egypt which, although they adhere to the Brics, maintain close and long-standing relations with Washington.
The about-face of Buenos Aires, which benefits from energy and agricultural assets, is, of course, a shortfall for the Brics. But the alliance, which represents almost half of the Earth’s population, can count on five countries in the Middle East to bring all its weight to bear. The accession of countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, which bring their oil resources and their sovereign funds, means that the “Brics+” now control almost half of world oil production (i.e. 43 .34%) and represent 35% of global GDP.
Such a windfall is undoubtedly one of the vectors of dedollarization constantly advocated by the members of this bloc, whose two superpowers already operate with the yuan to ensure the supply of hydrocarbons to their Asian partners.
The question now is to know what place the new members would have alongside China and Russia. If countries like Egypt or Ethiopia hope to benefit from their membership through Chinese investments or financial loans, Beijing and Moscow hope, in the medium and long term, to extend their influence in the world against the American giant and to circumvent sanctions targeting the Kremlin.
The United States, for its part, says it does not see future “geopolitical rivals” in the BRICS and hopes to maintain its “solid relations” with Brazil, India and South Africa. If Uncle Sam calmed his relations with Beijing in November, he is naturally trying to contain his rival by establishing new partnerships all over the world.
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