2023-08-23 12:48:10
If he had insisted on coming, South Africa would have finally had to clarify its position on fulfilling its international obligation to arrest the Russian leader for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.
Spared that embarrassing challenge, South African officials are now reveling in their role as host, proudly filling journalists’ inboxes with a flood of emails about Brics breakfasts, trade fairs, dialogues on townships and the like.
This unusual degree of official enthusiasm serves, according to some observers, to underline how far and how quickly this country seems to be moving away from the West, not only towards a more multipolar world, but also firmly in the orbit of the China and, to a lesser extent, in Russia.
At a recent pre-summit meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in Cape Town, a Russian journalist leaned over to me at a press conference and said, “You can keep your human rights paradise man [en Occident]. We are remaking the world. »
The Brics may still be in their infancy, but they generate – at least in some quarters – a genuine and disruptive sense of energy and enthusiasm.
A colleague who attended a foreign policy workshop hosted by the South African government told me of an overwhelming consensus there that China was the future and the West was in decline.
This is where South Africa’s malaise comes into play.
Wealthy businessman President Cyril Ramaphosa is keenly aware that the local economy, hit hard by Covid and facing the highest unemployment and inequality rates in the world, desperately needs more help. foreign investment to escape a deepening crisis.
Russia is certainly not the solution. Its commercial relations with South Africa are almost non-existent.
China is an increasingly important player, but it is nevertheless overshadowed by longstanding trade with the European Union (EU) and the United States, as well as investment from the latter.
So why would South Africa jeopardize these key – already strained – relations with the West at a time of deep economic uncertainty?
The answer, at least in part, seems to lie within the increasingly tired and erratic ruling party.
After three decades in power, the African National Congress (ANC) is struggling to shake off infighting, corruption and administrative chaos.
Faced with the war in Ukraine, for example, the South African government offered a confusing set of responses: it first condemned the invasion, then pointedly refused to condemn it, then blamed NATO, then praise of Mr. Putin, offered himself as a peace broker, hosted Russian naval exercises, was quick to explain himself to Washington and casually repeated Kremlin talking points.
Finally, it remains to be seen whether South Africa supplied arms to Russia last year, as claimed by the United States.
There is no doubt that President Ramaphosa is deeply uncomfortable with Russia’s invasion and is keen to present himself as a wise and neutral defender of a more multipolar world.
But many in his government and party routinely undermine that stance, often citing nostalgia for Moscow’s support during the anti-apartheid struggle and a more general distrust of US foreign policy.
This haphazard message succeeded in angering all parties to the conflict and making South Africa appear weak and indecisive.
Nelson Mandela’s ‘Rainbow Nation’ is certainly in trouble right now, with some even going so far as to say it could soon become a ‘failed state’.
But this week’s Brics summit will provide the Kremlin with a useful platform to showcase its own, far more strategic and effective diplomacy.
The coup in Niger and the possibility that the opportunistic and rogue Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group could exploit the chaos for their own benefit, as they have already done in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR), have undoubtedly recently made headlines across the continent.
But what is at least as important is the success with which Moscow, through its widely-travelling Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and through shrewd media messages, has managed to present itself – after decades of almost non-existent presence on the continent – as a credible alternative to the “colonial” influence of the West in Africa.
In countries facing poverty, the impact of climate change, increasingly young populations and rising unemployment, frustration with the status quo has led many to open up to new alternatives. .
Hence the following question: what have Western countries done to challenge Russia?
It is of course dangerous to generalize about this continent, and it is both wrong and offensive to suggest that African governments are merely pawns in a resurgent cold war.
But where is the Western version of the Brics? The UK has an “Africa Minister”, but hardly anyone has ever bothered to stay in that position for longer than a year.
Preoccupation with development projects, stringent conditions and hand-picked overseas invitations to favored African leaders have fueled claims that France, the UK and other former colonial powers are dealing always the continent as a tedious crisis to manage, rather than as a partner to support.
This statement may be unfair. After all, Western nations have, for decades, spent a great deal of energy and money supporting the continent’s health services, businesses and governments.
But the role of Western armies – French troops and American drones in particular – in countries like Niger and Somalia has drawn strong reactions.
This perhaps explains why the alternative Brics vision is gaining traction on this continent, and why the bloc will present its case, with force and confidence, in Sandton boardrooms this week.
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