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2024-07-10 21:06:09
Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
The elections to the European Parliament (EP) have significantly changed the political landscape of the European Union, shifting it rapidly to the right. While the conservatives and the right were outright winners of the elections, the social democrats and the left were content to try to maintain their position.
“Greens” and liberals, of course, lost.
In the history of the European Union, the right and the ultra-right did not have the current popularity and influence in the countries of the “old continent”. The current situation may prevent the centrist political forces in the EU countries from obtaining a traditional minority, as well as prevent the consensus mechanism from working in Brussels.
Former Prime Minister of Portugal, social democrat Antonio Kostu replaced Charles Michel as President of the European Union Council, and Prime Minister of Estonia Kaya Kallas replaced Joseph Borrel as EU High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs and Security.
Although the names of many candidates for the post of the European Commission president are mentioned, there is no doubt that Ursula von der Leyen, one of the leaders of the European People’s Party (EPP), will remain in her position. The leaders of many EU countries have also declared that they accept it. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz generally emphasized the “undesirability of replacing” von der Leyen.
Elections for the post of the President of the European Commission (EC) will be held in the middle of this month. More precisely, on July 16, there are great possibilities that Roberta Metsola will remain in the position of President of the European Parliament, and Ursula von der Leyen will remain in the position of the EC head.
Thus, during the summer vacation in the European Parliament, there will be an opportunity to determine the list of potential members of the European Commission.
For Ursula von der Leyen to remain in office, at least 361 of the 720 MEPs need to support her candidacy: this will not be an easy task, given the rise of right-wing and radical right-wing parties.
It should be recalled that in 2016, Jean-Claude Yunker had a 46-vote advantage, while in 2019, von der Leyen won with only 9 votes. Moreover, 5 years ago, he was supported by the right-wing and populists.
If Ursula von der Leyen fails in the European Council or cannot obtain the required majority in the European Parliament, the European Council, currently chaired by Hungary, should present a new candidate in a very short time, and the new European Commission should postpone its activities for a while.
The delay can be a serious blow to the reputation of the European Union, in addition to reducing the useful work coefficient.
In addition to the extremely politicized process that we are talking about, the process of re-forming the factions in the European Parliament (EP) has started.
Elections of the president, vice-presidents and committee chairmen in the AP will determine the political priorities of the institution in the coming years. In addition, there will be reorganization of right-wing and ultra-right political groups. The main issue, of course, will be with the radical right-wing “National Unity” parties in France and the “Alternative für Deutschland” (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) in Germany.
The leader of “National Unity” Marine Le Pen will start preparations for the presidential elections in 2027, as he failed to achieve the expected success in the extraordinary parliamentary elections in France, and therefore it is expected that he will revise the partnership agreements.
The leaders of Europe’s most influential right-wing parties, Marine Le Pen, Giorgio Meloni and Mateo Salvini, refused to cooperate with the AfD.
In order not to lose their positions in the European Parliament, AfD removed one of its key functionaries, Maximilian Krahn, from the German delegation in the institution. If the far-right in the European Parliament does not change its position and restore the partnership with the AfD, the German radicals will most likely try to create a third right-wing faction in the EP. For this, AfD needs the support of at least 23 MPs from 7 EU member states.
To solve the problem, the AfD will try to attract other right-wing parties that are not currently represented in any faction in the European Parliament (EP), such as Fidesz, chaired by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
A different option is no exception. Thus, the right-wing populist and extreme right-wing parties in the European Parliament can try to strengthen their position by creating a new “super-faction”, which can result in further hardening of the polarization in the institution. If the faction in question emerges, it will definitely put internal and national issues on the agenda of the European Union, and put pan-European issues in the background.
The mentioned option has little chance of being realized, because there are serious disagreements between the right-wing parties in Europe regarding the most important issues in the field of foreign policy and security.
The European People’s Party (EPP), which includes the Christian-Democratic and Christian-Socialist parties, is preparing to activate its contacts with the right-wing parties, taking into account the current situation. Instead of seeking partnerships with the “greens” or the socialists, ACP leader Manfred Weber began talks with the right-wing, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has also established close relations with J. Meloni in recent months. In these contacts, von der Leyen sought additional support to remain in his post, while Meloni sought to gain influence at the European Union level.
Let’s not forget that Meloni’s pre-election propaganda campaign “Italy will change Europe with George!” (John Giorgia l’Italia cambia l’Europa) passed under the motto.
We will see the results of Weber’s and von der Leyen’s talks with the right-wingers in the near future, but one thing is already clear: as a result of such discussions, the European XCalg Party is rapidly losing the support of the leftists and left-centers.
European social democrats, as well as German chancellor Olaf Scholtz, have already said that Ursula von der Leyen could lose her job if she continues talks with the radical right.
In fact, those negotiations indicate not only the rightward leaning of the European People’s Party, but also serious changes in the internal political landscape of the countries in the European Union.
There are many reasons, but the main place among them is that the average European is tired of the current politics and politicians, and tends to populists who promise simple answers to complex questions. Political fragmentation will delay the adoption of decisions in the European Union and the Council of the European Union and will prevent reforms.
The prominence of national interests in the countries of the European Union will affect the general policy of the EU, especially its position on cross-border issues such as migration, climate change and economic cooperation.
Regardless of who leads the European Commission, the new commissioners will be more right-wing in political orientation, as they are appointed by the governments of EU member states. In the last 5 years, the ratings of the rightists in the countries of the European Union have been continuously increasing.
When it comes to the general picture of the situation in the “democratic” countries of the European Union, what is happening is reminiscent of a political collapse. The rise of the right-wing in France, the rise of the influence of the far-right-radical AfD in Germany, the prospects for the radical right-wing Nigel Farage in Britain, the radical Donald Trump’s successive blows to the positions of the democrats in the United States, and finally, the occurrence of similar processes in small European countries…
Blaming the voters for what happened is the easiest thing to do, but it is illogical.
Why is the number of right-wing and far-right supporters growing among European voters?
Why Europeans who voted for leftists or centrists now hope for rightists?
Because they don’t talk to him. Much of what happens in the country where he lives does not satisfy him – in general, a normal person is always dissatisfied with many things.
But the centrists or leftists, democrats or socialists whom he voted into power learn the opinion of that voter every four years, show confidence that he knows what he is doing and feel as if he is in a parallel world.
The political elites of the countries of the European Union say “we”, but most of the average Europeans feel that they do not belong to that “we”. Farid Zakaria said that trust in democratic institutions in the West is constantly decreasing: according to him, the number of people in the West who think that “politicians we elect do not want to take into account our interests and problems” is increasing.
The main reason for the rise in popularity of the right and the radical right in the West is that the ruling elites forget that politics is more about the art of dialogue than possibility.
It should not be a formal, dry, polite communication consisting of a bunch of words, but a discussion of the problems that concern people.
Only then can radicals be prevented.