MEPs were desperate to see the ax fall. They applauded for a long time on Tuesday 5 April, when the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced to them the activation against Hungary of a mechanism of “conditionality”, aimed at depriving a country of funds of violations of the rule of law. Two days earlier, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had just won a fourth term, renewing his constitutional supermajority. It will not take long to find the answer of the “Brussels bureaucracy” that he denounced the same evening of his triumph.
Choosing an angle of attack
The mechanism in question has never been activated before. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) confirmed the legality of this on Wednesday February 16, dismissing the actions for annulment by Hungary and Poland. The Commission, guardian of the treaties, was under pressure from the European Parliament to launch hostilities. MEPs had even launched infringement proceedings against her. But the European executive wanted to wait for the Hungarian elections on April 3, so as not to lend themselves to the trials for interference, while Viktor Orban was already accusing him of waging a “jihad” against him.
→ DEBATE. Can Viktor Orban’s victory in Hungary be emulated in Europe?
Now Budapest operates the register of democratic denial. Gergely Gulyas, the prime minister’s chief of staff, accused the Commission of ” make a mistake “ and to want “punish Hungarian voters for not expressing an opinion to Brussels’ liking during the elections”.
The content of the letter of formal notice sent to Budapest has not been disclosed, but the alleged facts have already been exposed: Brussels targets problems relating to public procurement, conflicts of interest and corruption . It is indeed the purpose of the conditionality mechanism to protect the EU from harm to its financial interests. It may seem less directly relevant in Poland, with regard to attacks on the independence of judges or even the questioning of the primacy of European law.
The Commission has not completely given up its showdown. Poland, like Hungary, has not received a penny from the post-Covid recovery plan of 750 billion euros, adopted in December 2020. The Polish government, in retaliation, is slowing down the transposition into European law of the minimum tax of 15% on the profits of multinationals.
Polish state of grace
Jacques Rupnik, specialist in Central and Eastern Europe (Sciences Po-Ceri), believes that the relative leniency of Brussels vis-à-vis Warsaw does not bode well. “The best way to protect the financial interests of the EU is still to guarantee free and independent justice”, he rejects.
The researcher believes that the war in Ukraine has made Poland the indispensable platform for military and humanitarian aid to kyiv. “The Russian invasion has made the objective of European unity a priority, muting what divides”, deplores the expert, for whom it is also a question of not discouraging the efforts of Polish President Andrzej Duda, who is defending a bill returning in part to the reforms of the judicial system.
→ ANALYSIS. With the war in Ukraine, the Poland-Hungary alliance is faltering
Budapest, for its part, has two months to respond satisfactorily to the criticisms formulated by the Commission in Brussels, otherwise the procedure will follow its course. At the end of the chain (after six to nine months), it will be up to the Member States to confirm the suspension of European funds.
Unlike the so-called Article 7 procedure, which in theory can go as far as suspending a country’s right to vote in European bodies, the new mechanism does not require unanimity. A qualified majority (15 Member States out of 27) will suffice to adopt the sanction. Poland will not be able to shield. Without a mutual protection contract, the already weakened ties between Warsaw and Budapest over the relationship with Moscow could become even more strained.
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Billions at stake
To date, the European Commission has still not validated the 7.2 billion euros in subsidies that Hungary must receive under the post-Covid recovery plan, nor the 36 billion euros of the Polish plan (23.9 billion euros in grants and 12.1 billion euros in loans).
The EU executive considers that the funds cannot be disbursed in the context of violation of the rule of law in these two countries.
Hungary and Poland, two net beneficiary countries of European funds, are also highly exposed to the EU suspension mechanism. Warsaw must receive 75 billion euros (over seven years) in cohesion funds, Budapest 22 billion euros.