UOnce again, the gradual restoration of major financial balances will have to wait. While the public debt is about to cross the threshold of 3,000 billion euros, the finance bill for 2023, presented Monday, September 26 by the government, gives pride of place to spending, forcing ever more borrowing . After the “whatever the cost” linked to the Covid-19 pandemic, it is now the inflationary context and its deleterious effects on the purchasing power of households as well as the deterioration of the world economy which set the course. budgetary.
The laxity in terms of public finances that France has shown in recent decades should not hide the fact that the country is now facing a wall of essential funding. The changes underway require hundreds of billions of euros of investment. We must simultaneously assume the overhaul of public services, an ecological transition coupled with an energy crisis and public policies capable of defusing the populism that is gaining momentum everywhere.
For the government, the path is narrow. By keeping the public deficit at 5% of GDP in 2023 without raising taxes, he is making a bold bet. The effects of the strong post-Covid recovery have led to higher-than-expected tax revenues in recent months thanks to the increase in the employment rate and the rise in corporate profits. But the outlook is darkening and the slowdown in growth could put an end to this virtuous circle, plunging the budgetary trajectory into the unknown.
False hopes
The establishment, on a European scale, of an exceptional contribution on the superprofits of energy companies could come to relieve public finances. But this is a one-time measure. In a more structural way, Emmanuel Macron presents the pension reform as the martingale of the French budgetary equation. But, apart from the fact that its contours remain vague, that its implementation remains problematic and that its effects will not be felt for several years, the billions of euros that it would potentially save will not be able to both be used to guarantee pensions and to make the ends of the month of the State.
In terms of savings, the government highlights the fight against tax and social fraud, but the resumption of this mantra from the right and the far right only fuels false hopes: in addition to the technical difficulty in recovering the are, the amounts are not commensurate with the stakes.
The easing of European budgetary rules within the framework of the stability and growth pact of the euro zone can provide France with some leeway. The mechanism which sets constraints in terms of the public deficit and the weight of the debt has been suspended in the wake of the crisis linked to Covid-19 until 2024. Until then, negotiations must begin in October to adapt the device.
This process does not exempt France from seriously opening up the evaluation of its public expenditure. Due to a lack of political courage and intellectual laziness, it was constantly rejected, regardless of the majorities in power. It is time for the national representation and the social partners to take up the subject. At a time when needs are exploding, public money has never been so precious. “France is close to the euro”, says Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy. All the more reason to spend better.