2024-08-20 22:50:15
This is the summer puzzle: how can we present a credible budget, while knowing that it will either be modified, or even partially accepted, in the coming weeks by the government which should be elected soon?
To solve this squaring of the circle, the Prime Minister’s work has been removed for a resolutely … minimalist version of the late 2025 draft budget, this Tuesday, August 20 in the afternoon, Matignon is eager to explain that they must allow the administrations to continue their work: “The new government will be able to make the reforms it deems necessary”, in order to stick to “its priorities”.
Very soft until the last moment, therefore, the alternative budget that is well described as “change” must be presented to Parliament no later than next Thursday, October 1.
“Not a straight jacket”
Matignon insists: it is only a workbook. “It’s not a straight jacket, the letters aren’t written in stone.” “You are a white creature, the next government will put your color on it. The government will renovate the room before they leave,” explained Ensemble pour la République MP Mathieu Lefèvre.
The only certainty, for the time being: in the said attention to neutrality – of “responsibility”, specified Matignon “to find a way to restore public finances” – the presented budget is intended to be “zero value”. In plain language? It is not increasing. The amount of allocated credits, i.e. 492 billion euros, is the same as in 2024.
“Bruno Le Maire (Minister of the Economy of the resigning government) want something to be on the table so that the next government can start working,” said a ministry adviser. While he emphasized: “Bercy wants 5 billion in savings. Matignon has chosen zero.”
Cut to Labor
Knowing that the government counts on an annual tax increase of 2%, this financial option also requires finding around “ten billion euros” in savings compared to last year. Next to government agencies whose funding will be increased or stabilized – such as Sports or Culture – this means that others will experience lean times.
Without wanting to say much on the question, also on the grounds that “it will be up to the new government to choose its budget decisions”, Matignon predicted that the budget of the Ministry of Labor will be affected – the training program in particular. , as we said before, it should be reformed to be “more economical”.
A question carefully avoided by the Prime Minister works: Can France be satisfied with this zero-value budget, in view of the deficit reduction process that began at the end of July by the European Commission? Matignon reluctantly agreed, this Tuesday, to note that his budget proposal has not been “properly submitted” to Brussels…
“As long as we’re in these waters…”
This is not the only hole that worries experts: for the political instability born from the dissolution desired by Emmanuel Macron; for, also, the prospect of an ungovernable Assembly, the “PLF” (finance) 2025 cannot be voted on as it should be until the end of the year.
By then, the issue should already be over. “I have scheduled a meeting of the Finance Committee for September 11 with the new minister appointed to start the discussion on the budget”, revealed Éric Coquerel, Deputy Insoumis who was re-elected in July at the head of the Finance Committee of the Assembly. “It is planned to be presented on the last Wednesday of September to the Council of Ministers. As long as we are in these waters…”
But, even if Emmanuel Macron names the future resident of Matignon following his meeting – Friday and Monday – with party leaders, he will still come to determine the composition of the government, before facing the budget.
A ministerial adviser recalled that “the PLF must be submitted to the High Council of Public Finances two weeks before” its presentation to the Council of Ministers. Suffice it to say that the deadlines are many.
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