Mainz could pull off a surprising result this Friday, according to betting analysts, as the 2025/26 Bundesliga season’s 22nd matchday promises a mix of expected outcomes and potential upsets.
The upcoming weekend features several intriguing matchups, with outsiders like Mainz and St. Pauli poised to deliver strong performances. All eyes will also be on Frankfurt as new coach Albert Riera makes his home debut.
- Dortmund faces Mainz with analysts suggesting a virtual two-goal advantage for the visitors.
- A tight contest is anticipated between Leverkusen and St. Pauli, with St. Pauli potentially exceeding expectations.
- Frankfurt is expected to secure a win against Gladbach in their new coach’s home debut.
- Hoffenheim is favored to defeat Freiburg in the Baden derby.
- Hamburger SV and Union Berlin are predicted to draw, offering a double chance opportunity.
Looking for value in your bets? Analysts are focusing on five key matches, and a look at odds from NEO.bet reveals potential opportunities for savvy punters. New customers at NEO.bet can take advantage of welcome bonuses, while existing customers can optimize their stakes with promo codes.
Dortmund – Mainz: Win Mainz HC +2
Friday evening’s match at Signal-Iduna-Park kicks off the 22nd matchday. Borussia Dortmund has proven difficult to defeat this season, suffering only one loss in 21 rounds – a feat they’ve only achieved once before. While Coach Niko Kovac’s team struggles with fluidity, their discipline and unpredictable offense make them formidable. A 2-1 win against Wolfsburg secured 16 points from a possible 18 this calendar year.
Dortmund also boasts the league’s most clean sheets (10) and excels from set pieces, scoring nine goals from dead balls. Their 13-game unbeaten streak (9 wins, 4 draws) faces a stern test. Meanwhile, Coach Urs Fischer has revitalized Mainz, who have secured three consecutive wins – more than they achieved in the first 18 rounds combined (2).
Last season, Dortmund won both encounters against FSV Mainz 05. However, they went four games without a win against Rheinhessen (2 draws, 2 losses). This time, analysts believe the in-form visitors will perform well against Dortmund. At NEO.bet, odds of 1.52 suggest Mainz can secure a virtual two-goal lead.
Leverkusen – St. Pauli: Sieg St. Pauli HC +2
Leverkusen faced a challenging season following the successful era under Xabi Alonso. Coach Erik ten Hag was dismissed after just two matchdays, and even under successor Kasper Hjulmand, the team exhibits signs of a club in crisis. Currently, Bayer is not considered a Champions League contender, as evidenced by their 1-1 draw against Gladbach, which revealed more shortcomings than strengths. They struggle to create goal-scoring opportunities and defend passively.
Bayer has won six of their last eight Bundesliga games against teams in the bottom half of the table, but that streak could end on Saturday. They host FC St. Pauli, who recently defeated VfB Stuttgart 2-1 with dedication and passion. With Werder and Wolfsburg struggling, St. Pauli is gaining momentum.
The teams recently met in the cup on February 3rd, with Bayer winning 3-0 at home. However, the Werkself didn’t appear entirely convincing. Analysts anticipate a closer contest this time. NEO.bet offers odds of 1.44 for a Bayer win, but Leverkusen was recently level for 45 minutes against three struggling relegation candidates. Therefore, the tip “Victory St. Pauli HC +2” at odds of 1.58 is recommended.
Frankfurt – Gladbach: Victory Eintracht
Eintracht’s winless streak continues under new coach Albert Riera, now spanning nine games (4 draws, 5 losses). In Riera’s debut against Union Berlin, Frankfurt controlled possession (73 percent) but created few chances, registering an xG value of just 0.14. Despite having the second-weakest defense in the league (46 goals conceded), they only allowed one goal in that match.
The home debut for the new coach arrives on the 22nd matchday. Gladbach has also gone five Bundesliga games without a win (3 draws, 2 losses). The Foals struggle, particularly at home, having secured the fewest home points in the league this season (9). They drew 1-1 with Leverkusen at the weekend after a strong first half.
Gladbach will be without striker Tim Kleindienst until March. However, they are 8th in the away table (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). A difficult task awaits against Eintracht, as Borussia has not defeated SGE in ten duels (4 draws, 6 losses). At NEO.bet, odds of 1.90 suggest Gladbach will lose to Frankfurt.
Hoffenheim – Freiburg: Sieg Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim aimed to upset Bayern Munich in the Allianz Arena but faced an early setback with a red card in the 17th minute. Despite being a man down, Coach Christian Ilzer’s team played courageously and equalized. Ultimately, they succumbed to Bayern’s offensive power with a 5-1 defeat. Nevertheless, TSG is having their best Bundesliga season, with 42 points after 21 games and remains a strong contender for a Champions League spot.
The Baden derby against Freiburg is on Saturday. Freiburg remains strong at home after a narrow 1-0 win against Werder Bremen. Only three teams have scored more home points this season. However, they are struggling away from home, with only nine points from eleven away games, placing them 13th in the away ranking. They have also failed to score in five away matches.
Analysts have little confidence in Freiburg in Kraichgau. TSG will be looking to bounce back from their defeat at Bayern. Hoffenheim has not won against Freiburg in nine Baden derbies, but with odds of 1.76 at NEO.bet, this series is likely to end on matchday 22.
Hamburger SV – Union Berlin: Double chance x/2
Steffen Baumgart managed HSV from February 2024 to November 2024. On Saturday, the former coach will return to Volkspark for the first time since his departure. Baumgart aims to end a negative series with his current team, as Union Berlin has not won any of their first six Bundesliga games of the calendar year (4 draws, 2 losses). The coach is still searching for the right formation, particularly in attack.
HSV secured their first away win of the season on the last matchday, defeating Heidenheim 2-0. However, they benefited from FCH’s missed opportunities. Overall, Hamburg has suffered only eight defeats in the first 20 games of this Bundesliga season, as few as in 2012/13. They now aim to extend their good home record, where they are 8th (4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses), having previously drawn 2-2 against Bayern.
Analysts believe HSV will not win against Union Berlin. HSV is still awaiting their first win against Union after three encounters (2 draws, 1 loss). The tip “Double chance x/2” is offered at odds of 1.50 at NEO.bet.
