2023-09-24 09:17:36
We don’t teach you anything if we tell you that in French institutions, the presidential election is the most important. This is even more true since the reform of the five-year term and the alignment of the calendar with the legislative elections, since 2002. However, at the start of the 2023 school year, around 1,300 days from the probable date of the first round of the next presidential election, we have The impression is that the maneuvers – we dare not say the big ones – have already been launched. On the left, where Fabien Roussel places himself and where Jean-Luc Mélenchon refuses any idea of a primary. But even more so on the center-right, with the activism of Edouard Philippe and Gérald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire not so far away, and Laurent Wauquiez further to the right, although more discreet. Or even on the far right, with Marine Le Pen already in the starting blocks.
It is early. Of course, 2027 is not yet in the minds of voters, it will only be in the very last months. But even for those who follow politics more closely, it’s very early. The only real precedent in this area is Nicolas Sarkozy, who started his offensive upon his appointment to the Ministry of the Interior, after the re-election of Jacques Chirac, in 2002. It was on November 20, 2003, three years and a half before the deadline, which he declares to think about the presidential election “not only when (he) shaves”.
A young president changes everything
The mother of all reasons for this anticipated commotion is given by political scientist Bruno Cautres: “It is undoubtedly the first time in history that we have such a young outgoing president who cannot run again. » This has been the rule since 2008: a president cannot serve more than two consecutive terms. We have therefore known since April 26, 2022 that Emmanuel Macron will not be able to be in the running in 2027, and that arouses appetites. But what does his age change? “When François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac finished their second mandate, the longevity of their careers allowed everyone to prepare for what came next. With Emmanuel Macron, who only set foot in politics less than ten years before his election, we are dealing with a much more recent phenomenon, continues Bruno. Cautres. Everyone’s points of reference were shattered. »
Concretely, Gérald Darmanin, who will be 41 years old on October 11, has not yet able to build around him a stable that can take him, if not to the presidency, at least to the campaign. Hence his plan for a personal political return to Tourcoing, his town, at the end of August, a first for him. Edouard Philippe, who is twelve years older but only became “presidential” after his three years as Prime Minister (2017-2020), is trying to structure his force at high speed. He created his party , Horizons, at the end of 2021, already has a group of 30 deputies and hopes to have a group in the Senate on Sunday, a tour de force. Conversely, François Bayrou, who has an old party, the MoDem, and the experience of three presidential campaigns, does not need to be as active. To a certain extent, Bruno Le Maire, already a candidate in the right-wing primary in 2016, also has this type of experience.
A marathon that ends with a 100m
To explain this premature boiling, the current political situation also plays a role. First of all, the very relative majority on which Emmanuel Macron must rely, which further reduces his political credit. Also, with his 2017 victory, “the Macron bulldozer has done great damage in the political landscape, it is in pieces, judges the communicator Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet. We’ll have to rebuild everything, and that justifies leaving early. » Especially since according to him, the only house that is still standing is the Le Pen house. “She is identified, popular, the media landscape is rather favorable to her, and certain media support her,” continues Moreau-Chevrolet, for whom the real chance of victory of the extreme right in 2027 changes everything.
“Things are much more complex for moderate candidates, because it is not just a battle to know who will win against Marine Le Pen. This time it is a brutal, head-on ideological war, with enormous risk. » In this context, the communicator judges that “three years or three and a half years to establish a possible candidate in public opinion is short”. Bruno Cautres sees for these premature candidates the “risk of the media mill and polls”: not easy to interest and surprise for three years. “Of course, we have to build first. But the important thing is the pace of the last few months,” believes the political scientist. The image to remember: a marathon that ends with a 100 m.
The Le Pen risk
“We are no longer in the 1980s-1990s, where you should not betray anything of your intentions, take care of your ride… We have to change the software,” says on the contrary Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, for whom the presidential election has changed. “We must rebuild political apparatuses, candidates, who must find credibility in a field of ruins where nothing is identified. Create consistency by being regularly in the media… It all takes a long time! », explains the communicator. But isn’t the media wringer even worse today than in the 1980s and 1990s? ” If ! It’s complicated, that’s for sure.” He repeats it, the context of a possible victory for Marine Le Pen imposes this new rhythm.
Add to this that the presidential favorites far from the deadline have never won, and you have the cocktail of contradictory injunctions that applicants must face. To know when is the right time to go on a campaign, there is no manual. And it seems like it’s always too early… before it’s too late.
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