CDU Lead Narrows as Greens Surge in Baden-Württemberg State Election Polls
A new survey indicates a tightening race for the Baden-Württemberg state elections, with the CDU maintaining a lead but seeing its advantage shrink as the Greens gain momentum.
The political landscape in Baden-Württemberg is shifting as the March 8, 2026, state elections draw closer. According to a recent trend survey, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) remains the strongest force, garnering 29 percent of the vote. However, the Greens are rapidly gaining ground, surpassing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and securing second place. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) are currently polling in the single digits, with the FDP potentially facing challenges in clearing the 5 percent threshold required for parliamentary representation. Notably, the Left party is positioned at 7 percent, potentially marking its first entry into the Baden-Württemberg state parliament.
“The CDU remains firmly in first place in Baden-Württemberg and the anchor of the middle class,” a CDU representative stated. “The people of Baden-Württemberg want us to lead the next state government.” The party emphasizes its commitment to job security, economic strength, and expertise, led by its top candidate, Manuel Hagel.
The Greens are capitalizing on a perceived desire for clear direction among voters. “Many feel: This election is a directional election,” a Green Party spokesman told SWR. The party is positioning Cem Özdemir as a leader who embodies a values-driven approach and offers stability in a challenging global environment. According to the Greens, securing a strong result in the election is crucial for Özdemir to become Prime Minister.
The AfD, currently facing scrutiny as a suspected right-wing extremist organization in Baden-Württemberg, views the survey results as a call to action. The party intends to amplify its platform focused on lowering electricity prices, curbing illegal migration, and defending freedom of expression. “It is also worrying to see that the Greens are making gains,” remarked AfD lead candidate Markus Frohnmaier to SWR.
The Left party is optimistic about its prospects, citing a “stable” 7 percent showing in the survey. According to their top candidate, Kim Sophie Bohnen, the party’s door-to-door campaign has revealed widespread concerns about rising living costs, including rents, daycare fees, and public transportation fares.
Despite the shifting dynamics, the SPD remains confident in its ability to influence the election outcome. A Social Democrat spokeswoman asserted that the current survey does not reflect a rejection of the party’s policies but rather a mandate to intensify its campaign efforts. The SPD aims to address concerns about affordability, teacher shortages, job insecurity, and bureaucratic delays, framing the election as a choice between fairness and the status quo of “green-black politics.”
The FDP is also determined to maintain its presence in the state parliament. FDP top candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke stated that the party will “mobilize all our strengths” during the final phase of the election campaign.
The “Sunday question,” as these polls are known, measures current voting tendencies rather than actual voting behavior. The last state election in 2021 saw the Greens emerge as the strongest force with 32.6 percent, followed by the CDU at 24.1 percent. The SPD, FDP, and AfD secured 11 percent, 10.5 percent, and 9.7 percent respectively, while the Left party failed to surpass the 5 percent hurdle.
More information about the Baden-Württemberg state elections can be found on SWR.de.
