2024-09-17 04:10:23
Dutch North Sea gas production fell more than expected last year. If this trend continues, researchers expect gas production in 2030 to be “minimal”, say researchers from the TNO Institute.
Onshore and offshore gas resources have declined enormously in the Netherlands: from 97 to 74 bcm in 2023.
In 2023, about 8.8 billion cubic meters of gas were extracted from the seabed, which is 10% less than expected at the beginning of the year. According to TNO, this is mainly due to the fact that companies are extracting less gas from their North Sea fields and are less willing to invest in new ones.
Producers have also drilled less in the North Sea to test for gas in certain areas. Little exploratory drilling for potential new gas fields is predicted in the coming years, a trend similar to that seen in the UK, TNO said.
The researchers calculated expected gas production for the next few years based on three scenarios. In the most pessimistic scenario, where gas production barely increases, it will amount to two billion cubic meters in 2030, said researcher Rory Dallman, quoted by Dutch media. Around 2040, production will drop to zero cubic meters.
Under the intermediate scenario, in which investment increases slightly for a short time, gas production in 2030 would be around 3.7 bcm, the researcher says, more than half of what it was in 2023.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the cabinet wanted to speed up the issuance of permits for gas production in the North Sea as much as possible. This was to ensure that the Netherlands would be less dependent on gas from Russia. But almost two years later, the acceleration is not visible, TN O adds.
In addition, public pushback against onshore and offshore gas extraction also accounts for fewer new projects, according to the researchers. Last summer, Greenpeace climate change demonstrators tried to stop the construction of a new oil rig offshore Schiermonikoog.
Total gas production fell by a third last year, according to TNO. This is mainly due to the closure of the Groningen gas field in April.