Statistics Korea announces ‘Future Household Estimates’
Elderly households are still responsible for their livelihood even after they grow old… Increasing faster than major countries such as the UK and Japan
Single-person households are also increasing, mainly among the elderly… 24% are over 80 years old, the highest among all age groups
Aunt Lee (69) has been living alone since she got a ‘twilight divorce’ from her husband 10 years ago. She makes a living with the allowance she receives from her children, her old-age pension, and the money she earns from working part-time as a senior citizen at a daycare center. “During the daycare break, my joy is traveling to Busan where my relatives are. I’m still healthy and can work, so I don’t feel lonely living alone,” she said.
Due to the aging population, the number of “elderly households” in which the elderly over 65 are responsible for the household’s livelihood is expected to exceed 10 million in 14 years, and by 2052, it is expected to exceed half of all households. The number of single-person households like Mr. Lee is also rapidly increasing, and in 30 years, it will surpass those in their 20s and 30s to account for the largest proportion of single-person households. As the rate of increase in single-person households is accelerating compared to the forecast two years ago, some are pointing out that it is urgent to reorganize the social system to match the changing population structure.
● In 28 years, five out of ten households will be ‘elderly households’
According to the ‘Future Household Estimates: 2022-2052’ released by Statistics Korea on the 12th, the number of elderly households with a head of household aged 65 or older is expected to exceed 10 million for the first time in 2038 and increase to 11.788 million households in 2052. This is a 2.3-fold increase from 2022 (5.225 million households). The proportion of elderly households in all households is also rapidly increasing. The proportion of elderly households is expected to increase from 24.1% in 2022 to 41.3% in 2038 and 50.6% in 2052. In 2052, elderly households will exceed half of all households.
The total number of households is expected to peak at 24,372,000 in 2041 and then decrease to 23,277,000 in 2052. This is in contrast to the steady increase in elderly households. The average number of household members, which was 2.26 in 2022, will fall to 1.99 in 2034, breaking the 2.0 mark for the first time. It is expected to decrease to 1.81 in 2052.
Compared to major advanced countries overseas, Korea’s population aging rate is fast. In 2042, the proportion of households aged 65 or older in Korea will increase to 44.4%, about double that of 2022 (24.1%). However, during the same period, the proportion of households aged 65 or older in the UK will only increase from 29.7% to 36.3%, and in Japan from 37.8% to 44.7%.
The rate of increase in single-person households is expected to accelerate even further. It is estimated that in 2037, single-person households will reach 9,714,000 households, accounting for 40.1% of all households for the first time. Two years ago, the estimate predicted that in 2050, single-person households would reach 9,054,000 households, accounting for 39.6% of all households.
Single-person households are increasing, especially among the elderly. The proportion of elderly households among single-person households will increase to 51.6% in 2052, exceeding half. In particular, single-person households aged 80 or older will account for 23.8%, the largest proportion among all age groups. This is a level that far surpasses that of young people in their 20s (6.9%) and 30s (10.9%).
Lim Young-il, head of the Population Trends Division at Statistics Korea, explained, “The number of single-person households has increased as the youth and middle-aged generations are moving into the metropolitan area in search of jobs and other things,” adding, “We also analyze that the number of single-person households among the elderly is increasing due to bereavement.”
● Traditional family forms are becoming increasingly difficult to see
Due to low birth rates, the number of 3-4 person households is expected to decrease. The number of 2-person households is expected to increase to 8.261 million households in 2052, accounting for 35.5% of the total. This is an average increase of 69,000 households per year compared to 2022. On the other hand, the number of 3-person households is expected to decrease from 4.18 million households (19.3%) in 2022 to 3.532 million households (15.2%) in 2052. During the same period, the number of 4-person households is expected to decrease by half from 3.059 million households (14.1%) to 1.563 million households (6.7%). It is becoming difficult to find a traditional family structure where a couple gets married and raises two or more children in one house.
The decline in households of 3 and 4 is interpreted as being largely due to the low birth rate. When dividing households by type, the proportion of households consisting of couples and children will be 27.3% in 2022, which is greater than households consisting of only couples (17.3%), but in 2052, households consisting of couples (22.8%) will overtake households consisting of couples and children (17.4%).
Yoon Hong-sik, a professor of social welfare at Inha University, said, “The number of single-person households is rapidly increasing regardless of the youth or the elderly, but our society is very slow to prepare compared to the speed of change.” He pointed out, “Since various social security systems are all based on household units, we need to change the social system on an individual basis to keep pace with the increasing trend of single-person households.”
Sejong = Reporter Sosulhee [email protected]
Sejong = Reporter Song Hye-mi [email protected]
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2024-09-12 18:28:14