2023-11-09 01:03:19
From our correspondent in the United States,
Are the rumors about the political death of Joe Biden greatly exaggerated? The question, borrowed from Mark Twain, arises on Wednesday, the day after good Democratic results in a series of local elections, one year before the 2024 presidential election and a probable return match against Donald Trump.
The American president seems to be coming out refreshed after the yes victory in Ohio to protect the right to abortion, the success of Governor Andy Beshear in the conservative state of Kentucky and the Democrats’ House-Senate double in Virginia. But if the mobilization of Democratic voters around the defense of abortion for 18 months bodes well for the tenant of the White House, Tuesday’s results do not necessarily contradict the bad polls which are accumulating for Joe Biden. Especially in the face of Donald Trump who retains the ability to galvanize disaffected voters during the presidential elections.
The defense of abortion, a driving force for Democrats
When the Supreme Court returned, in June 2022, to the Roe v. Wade, who legalized abortion at the federal level 50 years ago, many elected Republican officials, such as the new Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, hailed a “historic” day. In the process, conservative states have drawn up laws to prohibit or strictly limit abortion. Problem: American opinion is largely favorable to abortion, which should be legal in “any circumstances” for 51% of those questioned, and “in certain circumstances” for 34%. Only one in seven Americans are totally opposed to it, according to the Gallup barometer.
On the Democratic side, resistance was organized in the courts and in the voting booth. In the six referendums organized since then to protect abortion or the fetus, pro-abortionists have had a huge success, including in conservative states like Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Tuesday in Ohio.
In Virginia, Governor Glenn Youngkin was banking on a compromise by defending a law authorizing abortion up to 15 weeks. The sanction fell: while he dreamed of obtaining full powers, the Democrats retained the local Senate and reconquered the House, torpedoing his dreams of launching into the primary at the last second to challenge Trump.
“Yesterday’s results show how the Democrats can campaign on this theme and how the Republicans were marked at the national level” by the Supreme Court’s decision, says the former spokesperson for the Republican National Committee for 20 Minutes ( RNC) Doug Heye.
The strategy, which aims to put all pro-abortion Republicans in the same extremist basket, worked during the midterms on Tuesday evening, and remains the best weapon for Joe Biden next year. After having been the main architect of this societal earthquake by appointing ultraconservative judges to the Supreme Court, Donald Trump maintains vagueness about his positions. He criticized Ron DeSantis for signing a “too harsh” law limiting abortion to six weeks, which is currently being considered by the Florida Supreme Court. In mid-September, the former president promised on NBC that he would negotiate with both camps “a number of weeks that will make everyone happy.”
Complicated fundamentals for Joe Biden
For Joe Biden, this clearing comes after a catastrophic New York Times poll this weekend. His problem is not so much that he is 4 points behind Donald Trump nationally. If the alarm is ringing on the Democratic side, it is because Joe Biden is the loser in five of the six decisive states he won in 2020: Pennsylvania (-4), Michigan (-5), Arizona (-5), Georgia (-6) and Nevada (-10). With such a map, Biden would lose the electoral college by 237 votes to Donald Trump’s 301.
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With a popularity rating flirting with 40%, three out of four Americans who consider him too old to be president and almost as many dissatisfied with his economic record – with inflation which particularly penalizes the working classes – is Joe Biden still the best Democratic presidential candidate? David Axelrod, the former chief strategist of Barack Obama’s campaign, publicly asked the question. While recognizing that it was “late to change horses”.
Nate Cohn, the New York Times’ statistical expert, sees “no contradiction” between Tuesday’s good Democratic results and Biden’s poor polls. The idea is that Democrats performed well despite Biden, not because of him. In Kentucky, Andy Beshear campaigned defending progressive values on abortion but distancing himself from his president, preferring to highlight his personal economic record.
Doug Heye also puts into perspective the Republican defeat in Virginia, a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020. On Tuesday, it came down to one point, with numerous Republican victories in traditionally Democratic districts.
The other factor is that since 2016, Republicans have had a problem with participation in elections where Donald Trump is not a candidate, such as the midterms. In Ohio, for example, 5.8 million people voted in the Trump-Biden duel in 2020, compared to 3.8 million in Tuesday’s referendum. These two million people who did not come out to defend abortion will undoubtedly vote more for Donald Trump than for Joe Biden in 2024.
Not so fast, defends Democratic consultant Mike Lux. “When you have a good election night, it’s a good sign for the next election. Trump will attract more Republicans next year, that’s true, but it will also boost turnout among our voters. » This veteran of Bill Clinton’s campaign recalls an indisputable fact: “The last time Donald Trump was a candidate, the Democrats achieved the triple House, Senate and White House. »
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