According to the results of a recent study on cancer types and their effects in 185 countries, cancer deaths worldwide could increase considerably by 2050. The findings offer some of the main keys to providing prevention, diagnosis and treatment of this disease based on scientific evidence.
Global cancer prevention and treatment efforts have suffered a series of disruptions since the 2020 pandemic, driven by the consequences of COVID-19, persistent armed conflict, shifting health care financing priorities, and the cost crisis of life, among other causes. Another important factor to note is that between 2020 and 2022, the global Human Development Index (HDI), a composite measure of indicators such as life expectancy, education, and gross national income per capita, declined substantially for two years consecutive.
In this context, a team of researchers from the University of Queensland (Australia), led by prof. Habtamu Bizuayehu, conducted a study of 36 cancer types in 185 countries, prevalence and projections to 2050 by age, sex and region, providing a comprehensive assessment of the global burden of cancer.
For the study, published in ’JAMA Network’, the World Cancer Observatory database was used. They then projected future cases and deaths by applying these rates to the United Nations Development Programme’s 2050 population forecast.
Based on the results obtained, by 2050, the total number of cancer cases is expected to rise to 35.3 million, an increase of 76.6% compared to the estimate of 20 million for 2022. Likewise, yes estimates cancer deaths will reach 18.5 million, up 89.7% from the 2022 estimate of 9.7 million. Regarding gender, in 2050 a slightly greater increase in cancer cases (15.8% more) and deaths (8.0% more) is expected among men compared to women.
Leading the way is lung cancer, which will remain the leading cause of cancer death in 2050 and will account for approximately 19.2% of all cancer deaths globally, up from 18.7% in 2022.
Most affected countries
The largest increases are expected in countries with low or medium scores on the United Nations Human Development Index, which is based on average life expectancy, education level and per capita income. On average, cancer cases and deaths are expected to nearly triple by 2050 in low-scoring countries such as Niger and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, cancer cases and deaths are expected to increase, on average, by more than 42% and 56%, respectively, in countries with a very high score, such as Norway.
The findings suggest that strengthening access to and quality of healthcare, including universal health insurance coverage, is critical to providing evidence-based cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment. Cancer prevention and health promotion strategies play a critical role in mitigating the global burden of cancer by addressing modifiable risk factors such as tobacco use, alcohol consumption, overweight, and exposure to carcinogens and ultraviolet radiation, as well as promoting healthy and balanced food choices, physical activity, vaccination and screening. Rv Ana Mera, pharmacist. Barcelona
What key strategies does Professor Bizuayehu suggest for mitigating the rise of cancer cases and deaths?
Title: Navigating the Future of Cancer: An Interview with Professor Habtamu Bizuayehu
Editor (Time.news): Welcome, Professor Bizuayehu. Thank you for joining us to discuss your recent study published in JAMA Network. Your findings about the future of cancer deaths and cases are alarming. Can you summarize the key results for our audience?
Professor Habtamu Bizuayehu: Thank you for having me. Our study analyzed 36 types of cancer across 185 countries, projecting the burden of cancer by 2050. We estimate that the total number of cancer cases will increase to 35.3 million, a significant rise of nearly 77% compared to our estimates for 2022. Furthermore, cancer deaths are expected to reach 18.5 million, which is an increase of almost 90% from the previous year’s estimates. This trend highlights a concerning trajectory that demands our immediate attention.
Editor: Those figures are indeed concerning! What factors do you believe are contributing to this projected increase in both cancer cases and deaths?
Professor Bizuayehu: There are several interrelated factors. The disruptions in global health efforts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic play a significant role. These disruptions have affected cancer prevention, diagnosis, and treatment programs worldwide. Additionally, we must acknowledge the impact of ongoing armed conflicts, shifting healthcare financing priorities, and the rising cost of living, which complicates access to care. Furthermore, the decline in the global Human Development Index between 2020 and 2022 indicates that socioeconomic factors, such as education and income, are widening health disparities and ultimately contributing to higher cancer risks.
Editor: That’s a sobering perspective. With such a marked increase projected, what can be done to mitigate these trends? What are the key areas of focus for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment?
Professor Bizuayehu: There are several crucial strategies we recommend. First, we need to enhance global cooperation in cancer research and share best practices for prevention and treatment. Public health campaigns aimed at raising awareness about risk factors and the importance of early detection are essential. Additionally, improving access to healthcare, especially in low and middle-income countries, is vital. This includes not only education and screening programs but also ensuring affordable treatment options are available. sustainable health financing models must be prioritized to ensure that cancer care can remain a focus amid other pressing health issues.
Editor: It sounds like a multi-faceted approach is crucial. In your study, you noted a slight gender disparity in cancer cases and deaths by 2050, with men expected to see a slightly greater increase. Could you delve into why that might be?
Professor Bizuayehu: Yes, the data indicates that men are projected to face a more significant increase both in cases and deaths compared to women. This disparity can be attributed to several factors, including lifestyle behaviors that are more prevalent in men, such as higher rates of tobacco use and alcohol consumption, which are both major risk factors for many types of cancer. There’s also the influence of occupational exposures and a general tendency for men to engage less in preventative health measures. Addressing these lifestyle factors in targeted public health interventions could help reduce this gap.
Editor: That makes it clear that tailored approaches could play a significant role. Lastly, what message would you like to leave our audience regarding the future of cancer treatment and prevention?
Professor Bizuayehu: I want to emphasize that while the projections are concerning, they are also a call to action. This is a critical moment for global health. Investment in cancer research, equitable healthcare access, and effective public health strategies can significantly alter the trajectory we are currently on. My hope is that we proactively engage on this front to forge a healthier future for all, reducing the impact of cancer worldwide.
Editor: Thank you so much, Professor Bizuayehu. Your insights illuminate not only the challenges ahead but also the paths we can take to prevent future suffering from this disease. We appreciate your work and look forward to seeing further progress in cancer research and treatment.
Professor Bizuayehu: Thank you for the opportunity to share our findings. Together, we can make a difference.