Still declining cancer mortality in Europe. According to research coordinated by the University of Milan together with the University of Bologna, published in the scientific journal ‘Annals of Oncology’, in 2023 around 1,262,000 deaths from cancer are expected in the European Union, around 172,300 in the United Kingdom. The group of international researchers, led by Carlo La Vecchia, professor of epidemiology at the University of Milan, estimates a 6.5% drop in cancer mortality rates in men and 3.7% in women between 2018 and on 2023.
The team analyzed death rates from cancer in the EU and its five most populous countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain), and in the United Kingdom. The study, supported by the AIRC Foundation, predicts “favorable trends for mortality rates in the ten most common cancer sites in most European countries, even if the absolute number of deaths will increase due to population ageing”. Compared to the peak of cancer mortality in 1988, the researchers estimate that, thanks to the favorable trend between 1989 and 2023, around 5.9 million deaths will have been avoided in the EU and around 1.24 million in the UK.
“If the current favorable trend in cancer mortality rates were to continue, a further reduction of 35% by 2035 would be possible – underlines La Vecchia – The cessation of tobacco consumption has contributed to these trends. To maintain them over time they are Further efforts are needed to control the epidemic of overweight, obesity and diabetes, limit alcohol consumption, improve the use of early detection screenings and treatments, and control viral infections for which vaccines and treatments exist.” The estimates, the researchers point out, do not take into account the Covid-19 pandemic, subsequent to the period for which the mortality data were available, which however “could have had an effect on cancer mortality, due to the slowdowns caused in the public health, influencing both secondary prevention and the treatment and management of cancer pathologies”.
“Tobacco control is reflected in the decrease in mortality from lung cancer – explains Eva Negri, professor of Occupational Medicine at the Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences at the University of Bologna, responsible for the study – There is still ample room for improvement, in particular among women, for whom lung cancer mortality rates continue to increase. Contrary to what was noted for men, between 1989 and 2023, there were no prevented lung cancer deaths among women in the EU” .
Another neoplasm, continues Negri, “which does not show improvements among men and increases in women is pancreatic cancer. Between a quarter and a third of these deaths can be attributed to smoking, and women, especially in the age groups more advanced, have not given up smoking”. Neoplasms still difficult to treat. In EU women, pancreatic cancer is expected to increase by 3.4% and lung cancer by 1%. In the five countries considered, increases in mortality from lung cancer in women are expected of 14% in France, 5.6% in Italy and 5% in Spain.
Examining in detail the age of women, mortality will decrease in the range between 25 and 64 years, while there is an increase in the over-65s. “This is due to the fact that women currently aged between 45 and 64, born in the 60s and 70s – says Matteo Malvezzi, a researcher at the University of Milan – smoked less and stopped earlier than those born in the 1970s. 50, who were in their 20s in the 1970s, when smoking among young women was more prevalent.” For the fair sex, colorectal cancer will be the third cause of cancer mortality both in the EU and in the United Kingdom, with rates of 8 and 10 per 100,000 women respectively. In men, prostate cancer will be the third leading cause, with predicted rates of 9.5 and 11.2 per 100,000 men in the EU and UK.