2024-08-22 19:54:20
Thuringia is considered difficult to govern. With Wagenknecht’s party, there is a chance of a majority government for the first time in years. But the BSW sets conditions before the election.
The need is great and the choice of partners is limited: In Thuringia, a possible coalition with Wagenknecht’s party BSW has been discussed for weeks. What will work with whom and will anything work at all in the end? According to surveys, an unusual liaison between the CDU, BSW and SPD currently seems to be Thuringia’s only hope for a majority government. After almost five years of minority government, political stability in the state has become an election campaign issue. Just two weeks before the state election on September 1, the possible partners are already indirectly sounding out what will work with whom – and in the election campaign they are oscillating between attack and affection, calm and panic.
The problem is: According to surveys, a majority in Thuringia is mathematically impossible without the involvement of the AfD or BSW. Since no one wants to form a coalition with the AfD, which the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as right-wing extremist, all eyes are now on Wagenknecht’s party.
The oscillation between attacking and courting was clearly visible last week in a TV roundtable in which BSW top candidate Katja Wolf also took part. “I have known Ms. Wolf for a long time, and there were also pragmatic things today,” said a visibly upset Georg Maier, top candidate of the Thuringian SPD. But if the BSW thinks it can set conditions that cannot be regulated in Thuringia, then it is “destroying something for the people.” “Let’s explore what is possible together, with the Democrats!”
Wagenknecht had made her position on war and peace a condition for the party’s participation in government. Maier spoke of blackmail, and CDU top candidate Mario Voigt has since rejected outside interference. The issue is seen as a potential breaking point if the three parties were to enter into coalition negotiations. Despite this, the federal parties of the CDU and SPD are giving their regional associations in Saxony and Thuringia a free hand. Most recently, SPD leader Saskia Esken reiterated that the regional associations did not need the advice of the federal level on the issue.
Erfurt political scientist André Brodocz sees the conditions set by the BSW as signals from the party to its own electorate and to those who are still undecided. “I believe these are conditions that are intended to reassure voters once again that the party is firm in its principles,” he says. In coalition negotiations at the state level, it is certainly possible to find solutions. “It is a stake that can be driven in, but it is not a firewall.”
Such an alliance could be a risky construct, especially for the CDU – after all, Wagenknecht was once the icon of the Left Party’s Communist Platform, and in her early years even held some Stalinist views. And she was a member of the SED. Thuringia’s Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow (Left) likes to emphasise this. For him, it is a contradiction that the CDU rules out a coalition with his Left Party, but not with Wagenknecht’s party at the state level. An alliance with the BSW at the federal level is also unlikely to spark cheers among every Christian Democrat.
Recently, statements by BSW representatives on how to deal with the AfD caused a stir. In the TV round, Wolf did not rule out voting for AfD legislative proposals if they were reasonable. According to expert Brodocz, however, this does not open the door to cooperation between BSW and AfD. “The BSW has clearly marked the boundaries and said that this is not what is meant by this.” In addition, coalition agreements usually contain rules stating that no voting with other parties takes place.
The statements are “more interesting” in the case of informal tolerance of a minority government, says Brodocz. The scenario would then be this: If CDU top candidate Mario Voigt relies on a minority government under his leadership and leaves the BSW out, the Wagenknecht party could pass laws in parliament together with the AfD – bypassing the government. Ramelow’s red-red-green coalition had to experience the same principle in recent years – when the CDU repeatedly pushed its own laws through the state parliament with AfD votes and even reduced a tax. According to Brodocz, the BSW statements on the AfD could therefore be a signal to the CDU that it is “already pushing for a binding form of cooperation”. The message would be: govern with us, otherwise we will outvote you in parliament.
In surveys, the CDU is in second place behind the AfD with values between 21 and 23 percent. The BSW is at 19 to 21 percent. Brodocz would not rule out the possibility that Katja Wolf will finish ahead of Mario Voigt. A gap of two percentage points is within the margin of error of such surveys. “That means: In reality, it could already be like that.”