The Central Bank confirmed the forecast for inflation in Russia for 2022 at the level of 4-4.5%, in the future the indicator will be at the level of 4%. This is stated in the information and analytical commentary of the regulator “Inflationary expectations and consumer sentiment”.
According to the Bank of Russia estimates, the contribution to inflation from the side of stable factors remains significant due to the faster expansion of demand compared to the possibilities of increasing output. “There are also risks of spillover effects associated with heightened inflationary expectations. In these conditions, the balance of risks for inflation is significantly shifted towards pro-inflationary ones, which may lead to a longer deviation of inflation upward from the target, ”the regulator noted.
Inflationary expectations of the population in November remain at the level of a multi-year maximum, although they have decreased by 0.1 percentage points. – up to 13.5%, the Central Bank stated.
“Although the median estimates of expected and observed inflation by the population in November decreased slightly, respondents’ concerns about the rise in prices for most frequently purchased goods increased. Noticeably more often than in October, the respondents expressed concern about the rise in prices for food products of animal origin (eggs, cheese and sausages, meat, milk), ”the Central Bank said.
From November 16 to 22, consumer prices in Russia rose by 0.2% for the first time since early November, Rosstat reported on November 24. Thus, after a sharp slowdown, the rate of price growth continued to accelerate. Since mid-September, weekly inflation in the country has not dropped below 0.2%. From October 26 to November 1, it amounted to 0.21%, and in the next observed period it sharply decreased – to 0.09%. This indicator has become the lowest since the second week of autumn.
However, then the rate of growth of prices began to grow again. They doubled last week on the back of a continuing slowdown in food inflation and a sharp rise in prices for non-food products – from 0.05% in the period from November 2 to 8 to 0.31%.
Annual inflation by November 22 fell to 8.05% after 8.1% on November 15. However, this is still widowed above the central bank’s target of 4%. In general, since the beginning of 2021, consumer prices in Russia have increased by 7.02%.
According to the Central Bank’s forecast, at the end of 2021, inflation in Russia will amount to 7.4-7.9% and will return to the target value only in the second half of 2022. The Ministry of Economic Development expects that the indicator will be at the level of 7.4%.