Fractured Centre: Calls Grow for a New Political Force to Fill the Void Left by the Liberal Party
A growing chorus of voices – from former Liberal prime ministers to teal independents and seasoned political strategists – are quietly exploring the possibility of a new political force in Australia, driven by a conviction that the Liberal Party has lost its way and left a critical segment of the electorate unrepresented. The discussions, gaining momentum in recent months, reflect a deep anxiety about the state of Australian democracy and the lack of a robust centre-right opposition.
The seeds of this potential realignment were sown decades ago. As early as 2015, Malcolm Fraser, then a former Liberal prime minister, was actively developing a plan to launch a new party – “Renew Australia” – predicated on social justice, ethical politics, climate action, and what he termed “genuine liberal values.” Though the project stalled upon his death, the underlying sentiment – that the Liberal Party no longer embodied its traditional centre-right principles – persisted.
Over the past six months, informal conversations have taken shape across major cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Adelaide. Participants include former Liberal moderates, ex-Coalition staffers, members of Parliament from the teal movement, retired Labor figures, community organizers, and even past donors to the Liberal Party’s business wing. Despite a reluctance to publicly acknowledge involvement, a common diagnosis has emerged: the Liberal Party may be incapable of reclaiming its centre-right identity.
“The right-wing element has taken over the Liberal Party,” former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull recently stated to Capital Brief. “There are very few moderates left in the party room. That’s why the talk of a split misses the point.” Turnbull did not dismiss the possibility of a new political force, suggesting that a centre or centre-right movement combining disaffected Liberals and teal independents was “not inevitable but certainly possible,” particularly as the Liberal Party continues to appeal to voters on the right. He believes the initiative would likely need to come from the teal independents, given their current parliamentary representation.
Recent polling data underscores this shift. According to the Resolve Political Monitor, the Liberal Party’s primary vote has fallen to the mid-20s, while One Nation has seen a surge into the high teens. Significantly, over 40% of voters are now considering options outside of the major parties. The upcoming state election in South Australia in March is viewed by many as a potential catalyst, a moment where informal discussions could solidify into concrete action.
The emerging model for this potential new force draws heavily from the success of the teal independents. A Senate-first strategy, coupled with selective lower-house contests, a commitment to climate action, and a pro-business economic platform, are all being considered. The potency of this approach was demonstrated in 2019 and 2022, when community-backed candidates unseated Liberal incumbents in key seats like Warringah, Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth (Sydney); Goldstein and Kooyong (Melbourne); and Curtin (Perth). Independents continued to make inroads in 2025, winning Bradfield in Sydney and securing second place in five Labor-held seats – Watson (Sydney), Franklin (Tasmania), Calwell (Melbourne), Fremantle (WA), and Bean (ACT).
Those remaining within the Liberal Party describe a stifling political environment, characterized by preselection processes dominated by party activists, policy debates narrowed by culture-war rhetoric, and a concentration of influence among factions seemingly uninterested in addressing the concerns of metropolitan voters. “The party room doesn’t look like the country – or even like the Liberal Party that last won government,” one former frontbencher confided.
Allegra Spender, the independent MP who secured Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat of Wentworth with a 6.8% margin, exemplifies this shift. The potential for a centrist breakaway has prompted speculation about Turnbull’s involvement, though he has publicly denied playing a leading role. “Malcolm knows that any new party isn’t going to be helped if it looks like it’s his project,” one organizer, speaking anonymously, explained.
The group is also looking to international examples for inspiration, including Prosper UK, a movement aimed at repositioning the British Conservative Party towards the centre, and drawing on the data-driven strategies employed by Faculty AI during the Vote Leave campaign. They have also consulted with experts in government digital services and transformation.
Hannah March, an Adelaide-based barrister and former staffer to both Turnbull and Morrison, is one of the few willing to publicly advocate for a split. She suggests dividing the Liberal Party into a Liberal party and a Conservative party, with the latter retaining the existing membership base. “The Liberal, Conservative, and National parties, along with any community independent who wants to help shape Australia’s future should consider a broad coalition to help take Australia forward,” she stated.
However, significant hurdles remain. What incentives would the teal independents have to join a formal party structure? And who would provide leadership? Some have suggested Allegra Spender as a potential candidate, though one Liberal wryly observed, “But can you imagine that group of people – all with main-character energy – voluntarily ceding the spotlight?”
The rise of En Marche (now Renaissance) in France, which propelled Emmanuel Macron to the presidency without relying on established institutions or a pre-existing celebrity figure, offers a potential roadmap. However, new federal political donation laws, implemented on July 1, introduce complicating factors. These laws cap individual donations at $50,000, lower the disclosure threshold to $5,000, and impose spending limits of $800,000 per electorate and $90 million nationally. Several teal independents, including Zoe Daniel and Rex Patrick, are challenging these laws in the High Court.
According to Graeme Orr, a law professor at the University of Queensland, the reforms present both opportunities and challenges. While the new system favors organization over large donations, it doesn’t entirely preclude new entrants. “Donation bundling remains legal, and spending caps are higher than often assumed,” he noted. “It’s like $90 million in electioneering for a party.”
Cathy McGowan, who won the seat of Indi in Victoria in 2013 through a grassroots “kitchen table conversation” campaign, believes communities are increasingly taking the initiative to fill a representational gap. “I think Australians are incredibly disappointed with the failure of the opposition to articulate alternative policy positions for the country,” she said.
However, McGowan also acknowledges a tension between local organizing and the need for a stronger national opposition. Not everyone believes a new party is the answer. Lucy Wicks, who previously held the bellwether seat of Robertson, argues that Australia needs a revitalized Liberal Party, one that reconnects with its core values of “reward for effort, individual opportunity and the belief that your dreams aren’t limited by your birthplace or socio-economic status.” She points to a disconnect between the party and younger voters, citing her son’s comment that “socialism sounds pretty good” – a view formed, she noted, from TikTok reels.
John Roskam, a senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs, contends that the teals’ success is rooted in their independence and that formalizing an alliance would diminish their appeal. He also questions whether the teal surge represents a mass exodus from the Liberal Party, arguing that much of the vote was tactical.
For moderates within the Liberal Party, leaving carries the risk of surrendering influence within one of the country’s two major governing parties. “It would require a massive infrastructure effort,” Roskam said, “and while third parties have succeeded in the short term, they rarely last.”
The situation is particularly acute in Victoria, where Opposition Leader Jess Wilson is seen as a potential leader for the party’s recovery. A strong showing in the November state election could bolster the case for reform. However, even optimists concede that the problem is structural, with the seats once held by moderates now occupied by teal independents and the party membership increasingly conservative.
“I think the next round of state and federal elections will be the making or the breaking of the party,” said Tony Barry, a former Liberal strategist. Labor now dominates the centre-left, while One Nation has established a firm foothold on the right, leaving a substantial group of voters – economically moderate, socially progressive, and climate-conscious – feeling politically homeless.
The historical precedent of Don Chipp’s departure from the Liberals in 1977 to form the Democrats serves as a cautionary tale. While initially dismissed, the Democrats reshaped Australian politics for a generation. Malcolm Fraser’s earlier, less successful attempt to build an alternative underscores the difficulty of such endeavors. Today, his diagnosis appears less like a curiosity and more like a prescient warning.
And for the first time in decades, the question of whether a new centrist force could emerge is no longer merely academic – it is a live and increasingly urgent possibility.
