2024-05-03 09:27:27
In Chad, three years after the disappearance of Idriss Deby, voters are invited to choose their future leader on Monday to end the transition period. Despite its oil revenue, Chad is still among the poorest on the planet. How to explain this paradox?
In 2003, during the inauguration of the pipeline built to transport crude oil to the Cameroonian coast, Idriss Déby promised benefits for the entire population. GDP took off and in 2008 it even briefly exceeded that of two other countries in the Sahel strip, neighboring Niger and Mali. But the windfall hoped for in the early 2000s was only a flash in the pan. According to World Bank economists, real growth quickly declines. Niger and Mali, both devoid of black gold, have regained the ascendancy over the new oil power of the Sahel. In terms of human development index, Chad is penultimate in the United Nations ranking. Poverty still affects more than 40% of the 18 million inhabitants. And in this country rich in hydrocarbons, fuel and electricity are overpriced. Only 10% of households in Chad are connected to the electricity grid, compared to 50% in sub-Saharan Africa.
The “political” curse of oil
Oil represents 10% of GDP, 90% of export revenues. Growth varies depending on the price of crude oil and plunges each time the barrel takes a nosedive. Like many other oil-producing countries on the African continent, Chad is a victim of the raw materials curse. Only partially. According to the researcher Harry Verhoeven the curse in Chad is above all political. He recalls that all the efforts of civil society to improve the management and redistribution of income have been canceled by the Deby clan. Contrary to commitments made in 2003, the government has gradually sucked up all oil revenues. To cover 40% of state expenditure.
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Priority to defense
Above all, to cover military expenses. The army is the first priority. Chad spends more on its defense than on health and education combined. To ensure the sovereignty of the country in an unstable region. To provide life insurance to the plan. This bet on all-security does not create long-term stability, believes Harry Verhoeven. Oil money could have been invested in development and peace, he notes, with the construction of roads and bridges to facilitate trade with Sudan or Libya.
Constantly declining production
Will the presidential election change things? The future government will be faced with the downward trend in oil production. To maintain the vein of black gold, the winner of the vote will have to find common ground with foreign companies to reinject money into production. The development of solar energy, announced with fanfare in 2023 with the construction of the largest photovoltaic plant in sub-Saharan Africa – with the exception of South Africa, could finally improve daily life. But its realization also depends on the good relations that the government will maintain with Savannah, the British designer of the project.
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