Changing 50% of meat and milk for vegetables would reduce emissions by 31%

2023-09-12 17:15:28

Plant-based food alternatives could support a shift towards global sustainability – WORLDANIMALFOUNDATION.ORG/

MADRID, 12 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) –

Replacing 50% of meat and dairy products with plant-based alternatives by 2050 can reduce greenhouse gas emissions related to land use by 31%.

Likewise, this measure can stop the degradation of forests and natural lands, according to new research published in the journal ‘Nature Communications’.

According to the study, reforestation of land freed from livestock production when meat and dairy products are replaced by plant-based alternatives could bring additional benefits to the climate and biodiversity, more than doubling the benefits to the climate and would halve the future decline in ecosystem integrity between now and 2050.

The restored area could contribute up to 25% to the estimated global land restoration needs under Target 2 of the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework for 2030.

“We will need much more than ‘Meatless Monday’ to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, and this study shows us the way forward,” said Eva Wollenberg, co-author of the study, from the University of Vermont (UVM), it’s a statement.

“Plant-based meats are not only a novel food product, but a decisive opportunity to achieve food security and climate objectives, while achieving health and biodiversity objectives around the world,” he explains. challenging and require a series of technological innovations and policy interventions.

The study, conducted by researchers from UVM, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Bioversity International Alliance and CIAT, is the first to analyze global food security and the environmental impacts of meat and milk consumption large-scale plant-based that takes into account the complexity of food systems.

“Understanding the impact of dietary changes expands our options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” said Marta Kozicka, lead author of the study and researcher at IIASA. Changing diets could also mean huge improvements for biodiversity. “.

The authors found that a 50% substitution scenario would substantially reduce the growing impacts of food systems on the natural environment by 2050.

Compared to 2020, the impacts would be that the global agricultural area would decrease by 12% instead of increasing, the decrease in the area of ​​​​forests and other natural lands would almost completely stop. Nitrogen contributions to cropland They are almost half of those planned and water consumption decreases by 10% instead of increasing.

Without taking into account carbon sequestration on preserved lands, greenhouse emissions could decrease by 2.1 Gt CO2eq year-1 (31%) in 2050 (1.6 Gt CO2eq year-1 on average in 2020-2050 ). Undernutrition worldwide is reduced to 3.6%, compared to 3.8% in the reference scenario (reducing the number of undernourished people by 31 million).

The authors developed dietary change scenarios based on plant-based recipes of beef, pork, chicken, and milk. These recipes were designed to be nutritionally equivalent to the original animal-based protein products and realistic for existing food manufacturing capabilities and production ingredients available worldwide.

To ensure relevance and as a potential user of the results, the research team sought input from Impossible Foods, a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat products. The company provided generic recipes for the plant-based meat substitute products used in the analysis. The scientific team had full control over the decision-making for this peer-reviewed studyand the data is not specific to Impossible Foods.

The full environmental benefit of dietary changes can be achieved if agricultural land saved from livestock and feed production is reclaimed through biodiversity-oriented afforestation.

In the 50% scenario, the benefits from reducing land use emissions could be doubled compared to a no-afforestation scenario: a total reduction of 6.3 Gt CO2eq year-1. The 50% replacement scenario would more than halve the projected decline in ecosystem integrity.

“Although the dietary changes analyzed are a powerful instrument to achieve climate and biodiversity objectives, they must be accompanied by specific production policies to take advantage of their full potential. Otherwise, these benefits will be lost in part due to the extensification of production and the consequent losses of GHG and efficiency in land use,” explains Petr Havlík, Director of the Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program at IIASA.

Although the results support the increased use of plant-based meat substitutes, the authors recognize that livestock are a valuable source of income and food for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries, and have important cultural functions, reduces risk and diversifies the income of small farmers.

Simultaneously, climate change threatens the livelihoods of small livestock farmers. Therefore, rapid policy and management action will be crucial to avoid environmental risk and support farmers and other actors in the livestock value chain to achieve a socially just and sustainable transition of the food system. This is especially important given recent setbacks in achieving food security globally, they highlight.

According to the study, the impacts between regions could vary due to differences in population size and diets, unequal agricultural productivity and participation in international trade in agricultural commodities.

The main impacts on agricultural input use are in China and on environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. These regional differences could also be used to design better interventions.

“The food sector produces approximately one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, and has been notoriously difficult to decarbonize,” explains Wollenberg, a researcher at UVM’s Gund Environment Institute, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources. , the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT.

“Given the magnitude of the benefits we show from replacing meat with plant-based alternatives for global sustainability, climate action and human health, this research provides important food for thought for consumers, food producers and political leaders,” he concludes.