The expansion of the Chinese navy is taking shape in the shipyards in Shanghai: satellite photos show that work is being carried out there on a 315-meter-long aircraft carrier; it would be the fourth for the largest military fleet and the most powerful shipbuilding in the world. The Type 003 ship is comparable to the Ford class, the category to which the most modern aircraft carriers in the US Navy belong. It is equipped with an electromagnetic catapult for launching fighter jets and can be used flexibly.
China’s aircraft carriers, plus 27 guided missile destroyers and 60 frigates, represent the attempt to push back the US Navy in the western Pacific. If possible to the island chain that extends south of Japan between Taiwan and the Philippines to the South China Sea. In order to prevent this, the Biden administration decided a month ago to include distant Australia and its allies Great Britain in a regional military pact, the “Aukus” alliance.
“In the past two decades, China has expanded its capacities to such an extent that it can restrict the United States’ freedom of action in the western Pacific,” says Sidharth Kaushal, Asia expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. “It started with long-range anti-ship missiles, and China expanded its navy to face a geostrategic dilemma.” can block. Trade routes could be cut quickly under certain circumstances. The American base system in the region, from Diego Garcia to Singapore to Okinawa (s. Karte), offers ideal conditions for this. From there, ship units can march and bomber fleets can be launched. In this case, China’s security zone off its coast would be indispensable for blocking enemy ships. This requires maritime penetration, modern air and nuclear forces that have a deterrent effect. Just like China’s nuclear-armed submarines, which already offer a guarantee that both great powers want to avoid one thing: the thermonuclear confrontation.
Warship parity through 2049
The US has been the dominant naval power in the western Pacific since the Second World War and sees itself as the guarantor of the security of Japan, South Korea and especially Taiwan. But China’s President Xi Jinping’s efforts to build a world-class military fleet by 2035 are constantly changing the balance of power. According to the Pentagon, China’s navy now has a good 350 warships – the US has 293, which, unlike the Chinese units, are in use around the world. Since the People’s Republic wants to have reached strategic parity with the USA on its 100th anniversary in 2049, an increase to 400 units by 2025 is essential. In view of these intentions, the stationing of the British aircraft carrier “Queen Elizabeth” in the Pacific was apparently intended to send a signal as early as the summer, especially since the escort of eight warships, including a US destroyer, seemed considerable. The “Queen Elizabeth” has already participated in several multinational exercises that were clearly directed against Beijing, including maneuvers with armed forces from the United States, Australia, France, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. For the march up and down, it was a matter of course through the South China Sea. At the same time, the Aukus Treaty came into play, which will enable Australia to use nuclear-powered submarine technology in the future. It allows long underwater missions and extends operations in the South China Sea to two months. However, such submarines will not be operational until 2040 unless the Australian Navy can borrow US stocks beforehand.
Taiwan-Agenda
1949
Separatstaat The Kuomintang army under General Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) is defeated in the power struggle with the armed forces of Mao Zedong and flees to the island of Taiwan, which is declared the official territory of the Republic of China. The People’s Republic of China is founded on the mainland. Taiwan initially represents China alone at the United Nations and in the UN Security Council, and in 1954 concludes a defense pact with the USA.
1971
Statusverlust After the exchange of ambassadors between the USA and the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan became recognizably marginalized internationally, losing the status of being the sole successor state of the Republic of China, the UN seat and, in 1979, diplomatic recognition by the USA. These, however, declare themselves to be a protecting power with the Taiwan Relations Act. At present, 14 states still have official relations with Taipei.
1989
Democratization Internal reforms lead to the renunciation of one-party rule and a multi-party system with the blocs around the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on the left and the Kuomintang Party (KMT) on the right. From the mid-1990s the president was directly elected, and from 2014 the “sunflower movement” became an extra-parliamentary corrective. In 2020, Taiwan ranks first among the Asian countries on the Democracy Index.
2000
Five no To ease relations with Beijing, President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) announced the “five no policy”. After that, they will not declare themselves independent, adopt a new state name, denote the relationship with mainland China as “intergovernmental”, hold a referendum on their own status and make no change in the principles for national reunification.
2016
Two-China policy Under President Tsai Ing-wen (DPP), the relationship between Beijing and Taipei has permanently deteriorated since Tsai distanced himself from the “1992 consensus” immediately after taking office in 2016. Politicians in Taiwan and China had informally negotiated this in 1992. His formula: There is only “one China”, but different ideas of what this China should look like. Tsai relies on “two Chinas” without explicitly saying so.
Meanwhile, China is building a new nuclear submarine every 15 months, says Mathieu Duchâtel of the French think tank Institut Montaigne in Paris, but is lagging behind in terms of ship size, technology and combat experience. In addition, one knows about estimates of the US Congress, according to which the US Navy with 330,000 soldiers has significantly more forces than China with 250,000. Its submarines would be considered too loud anyway and were located immediately when they followed the “Queen Elizabeth”. Chris Parry, retired admiral in the British Royal Navy, sums it up: “China has a lot of steel, the possibilities and the expertise for shipbuilding, as well as good weapons which it has taken over from Russia. The question will be whether they have enough trained soldiers. And if there are – can they fight? “
Is it about to be put to the test? When it comes to Taiwan, which is 110 nautical miles (180 kilometers) from mainland China, there are repeated tests to see how far you can go. There are regular maneuvers in which Chinese fighter jets cross Taiwanese airspace. Sidharth Kaushal doubts that China has enough amphibious vehicles for a successful invasion, and there is also a lack of marine infantry. The crucial question, however, is how the US will act to protect Taiwan and what the Chinese response will be if the worst comes to the worst. One must be clear about the escalation potential of such a confrontation.
The tension has recently been so intense that General Mark Milley, head of the US General Staff, called his Chinese counterpart General Li Zuocheng in mid-October to assure him that the military exercises were not a prelude to a war. The US secret service had come to the conclusion that Beijing feared a sudden attack and could take preventive action.
The last major crisis came in 1996, before Taiwanese elections, when US President Clinton dispatched two aircraft carriers near the island after the People’s Liberation Army fired several rockets that fell into the sea.
It is completely unclear how far the USA would get on Taiwan in the event of a war. “A development of power with concentrated forces would hardly be possible without risking significant losses,” notes Mathieu Duchâtel from the Institut Montaigne. It is much more likely that the US Navy will be pushed back in the direction of the Philippines and will have to react from a greater distance.
China shows a military presence on islands that belong to the Paracel and Spratly archipelago in order to control the east-west trade routes in the South China Sea, which countries like Japan in particular would feel in the event of a conflict. “Japan relies on the sea to import 80 percent of its oil,” said Kaushal. “And right now, neither the US nor China are ready to stop the armament of their navy. One should not underestimate the emotional dimension. National consciousness is a powerful force in China that leads politicians to take a hard line in territorial conflicts. “
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