China anticipates that his economy grow around the 5% this year. It is a conservative, realistic objective and one that will not require those pachydermic investments in infrastructures that they shot the public debt. The data has been revealed by the Prime Minister, Li Keqiangat the inauguration of the National People’s Assembly (the Chinese legislature) in a speech of marked economic nature. There is no more urgent priority for China than achieving a “full economic recovery” after three tumultuous years of pandemics, crisis in sectors as relevant as real estate and international instability. Expenditure will increase in several items, also in Defendingwhere an increase of 7.2% is contemplated.
It was Li’s tenth and final speech in front of nearly 3,000 delegates to the Great Hall of the People, a Soviet-flavored architectural enormity east of Tiananmen Square. It has been aired in just one hour, ridiculous by national standards. It has been the discreet farewell of a discreet leaderhopelessly dwarfed from his first day in the office by Xi Jinping, with which he has not always been in tune. It is foreseeable that he will be relieved at the end of the assembly by Li Qiangan old ally of the president.
The assembly comes three months after China withdrew the ‘zero covid’ policy. During the first two years he protected lives and the economy, but in the last he punished the second. The 3% GDP expansion last year, the second lowest in half a centuryhas jeopardized the ambitious social development plans. Getting the economy back on track will require tax incentives to strengthen domestic consumption, still punished by the consequences of the coronavirus. There will be housing aid for young people, greater health coverage for the elderly and incentives for maternity. Among the measures unveiled this morning by Li, is the creation of 12 million jobs urban areas and order the most volatile productive sectors.
insufficient demand
“The inflation global remains high, the international economy and trade have run out of steam, and attempts to curb and contain China are escalating,” Li said. “And at home, the foundations for stable growth still need to be consolidated, the insufficient demand it continues to be an accentuated problem and the expectations of investors and businessmen are unstable”, he continued.
The other figure that was expected with expectation, that of the growth of the military budget, it has stayed at 7.2%. It allows opposite readings: just one tenth higher than last year but also the greatest expansion in the last four years. It is, in any case, a “reasonable” figure, as Beijing had already announced, and which belies the tremendous rise that many predicted in a context of cyclical crises with Taiwan and the harassing presence of America in your backyard.
For him Taiwanese themea classic on the agenda, Li passed briefly and without saying more than what was repeated a thousand times about peaceful reunification and the fight against the independentist elements. China changed its strategy months ago, aware that belligerence only helps the interests of the United States and the island’s sovereignists, and its calmer tone is already evident. Beijing sees how the clouds begin to clear with the surprising resurrection of the Kuomintang, the party closest to her, which won the last local elections and has reasonable hopes for the presidential elections next year. It is not in China’s interest to push the Taiwanese electorate towards sovereignists with inflammatory rhetoric.