China Exceeding Projections in Nuclear Weapons Build-up, Pentagon Report Finds
WASHINGTON (AP) — A Pentagon report on China’s military power reveals that Beijing is surpassing previous projections on the speed at which it is building its nuclear weapons arsenal. The report, released on Thursday, also suggests that China is likely drawing lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine to anticipate a potential conflict over Taiwan.
According to the report, China may be developing a new intercontinental missile system that uses conventional arms. If successfully deployed, this system would allow China to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska.
The release of this report comes just a month ahead of an anticipated meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.
The annual report, a requirement by Congress, serves as a way for the Pentagon to assess China’s growing military capabilities. The U.S. government views China as its primary long-term security challenge and as the key threat in the region.
Despite the recent focus on the Middle East due to Hamas’s attacks on Israel, the U.S. remains committed to addressing the growing threat posed by China. The Pentagon’s national defense strategy revolves around China remaining the greatest security challenge for the U.S., and the report underscores that the threat from Beijing will determine the U.S. military’s equipment and structure in the future.
The Pentagon report builds upon last year’s warning that China was rapidly expanding its nuclear force, outpacing U.S. predictions. It emphasized China’s broad and accelerating military buildup, aimed at surpassing U.S. global power by midcentury. Last year’s report predicted that China would nearly quadruple its number of warheads to 1,500 by 2035, while the United States currently has 3,750 active nuclear warheads.
The 2023 report indicates that China is on track to field over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, aligning with President Xi’s goal of having a “world-class” military by 2049.
China has denied deviating from its “no first use” policy on nuclear weapons, but the report suggests there may be circumstances where China judges the policy not to apply. The U.S., on the other hand, does not adhere to a “no first use” policy, reserving the use of nuclear weapons for extreme circumstances.
The report further highlights China’s intensifying military, diplomatic, and economic pressure on Taiwan, as well as other neighboring countries, in response to perceived containment efforts by the United States. Beijing has expressed its determination to bring Taiwan under its control, even if it means using force. President Xi has given the Chinese military until 2027 to develop the capability to retake Taiwan.
To counter China’s actions, the U.S. has provided billions of dollars in military weapons to Taiwan to bolster its defenses.
China has also allocated a significant amount of its budget to military spending. The country’s 2023 military budget rose by 7.2%, reaching 1.58 trillion yuan ($216 billion U.S. dollars), surpassing its economic growth rate. However, U.S. officials suspect the actual figure might be higher. Beijing claims that its military policy is defensive, aimed at safeguarding its interests.
In addition, the report reveals an increase in Chinese harassment of U.S. warplanes operating in international airspace in the region. More than 180 instances of aggressive interceptions of U.S. military flights by Chinese aircraft have been recorded.
Furthermore, the report acknowledges that China has drawn lessons from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It states that China is striving for industrial and economic self-reliance, following the impact of Western sanctions against Russia.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia proved to be an unexpected test for China, forcing it to weigh its relationship with Russia against the potential reputational or economic costs it may incur. Nevertheless, China remains focused on its overall goal of rising as a national power.
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Associated Press writer Didi Tang contributed to this report.