China’s trade surplus hit $133.5 billion in September 2026, the highest since January 2025, as exports surged 36.3% year-on-year, driven by AI components, semiconductors, and poultry, while domestic pork demand collapsed due to shifting consumer habits and overproduction.
China’s trade surplus reached $133.5 billion in September 2026, the largest since January 2025, as exports jumped 36.3% year-on-year to $447.1 billion, fueled by demand for artificial intelligence (AI) components and semiconductors, according to the Chinese customs authority (GACC). Imports also rose 31% to $313.6 billion, driven by global energy and raw material prices, with the country’s trade surplus for the first nine months of the year hitting $938.1 billion, according to Anadolu Ajansı.
Export Boom: Chicken, Tech, and Global Reach
China’s poultry exports surged to $2.6 billion in 2025, nearly doubling 2020 levels, as cheap Chinese chicken dominated global markets. During the first half of 2026, Chinese poultry experienced a 29% drop in price, averaging US$961 per tonne to remain the least expensive option among primary suppliers. But when the meat is cheaper per ton than competitors, they have to either buy from China or lose out, said Ezequiel Pires, chairman of Lisbon-based meat trader Branexx, per WTAQ.
High-tech exports also drove growth, with semiconductor exports rising 108.1% year-on-year through September 2026. Motor vehicle exports grew over 50% in value and volume, while private enterprises accounted for 56.9% of China’s total foreign trade, up 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year, according to BigGo Finance. China’s exports have evolved significantly over the past decade, both by product breakdown and by destination,
said Lynn Song, ING Group’s chief economist for China, highlighting the shift toward higher-margin goods.
Wintop Food, a poultry processor in Tengzhou, processes 60 million chickens annually, selling to over 20 countries. Exports accounted for half of its 2025 profits, underwriting 33 acres of expansion. General manager Dang Yangyang, 44, said international clients “used to distrust the quality” but now seek Chinese chicken for its price advantage. If you have a significant price advantage, many customers actively seek you out,
he said, per Reuters.
China’s trade surplus reached $938.1 billion between January and September 2026, with analysts predicting a record $1.19 trillion for 2025. The surge was driven by 39.5% growth in exports to the U.S., 52.2% to ASEAN, and 25.2% to the EU. Wang Jun, a GACC spokesperson, attributed the rise to strong global demand for AI and electrical infrastructure, per SOURCE 1.
Domestic Challenges: Pork Overproduction and Shifting Consumption
Despite export success, domestic demand for pork collapsed. Per-capita consumption fell 13% since peaking in 2023, as health-conscious urbanites shifted to alternatives. Pig prices are so low.
Pig prices are so low because people in the cities just stopped eating pork, said Huang, a farmer with $75,000 in debt. Last year, China produced a record 59 million metric tons of pork, while poultry output rose 7%, according to OECD data.
The dairy sector surpassed 2025 production targets two years early. Pork prices are hardest hit, but poultry and dairy prices also fell.
Trade Tensions and Future Risks
The export surge has intensified trade friction, with Western producers and regulators scrutinizing Chinese protein imports. China’s poultry exports to Russia overtook Russian exports to China in August 2026, with $21.9 million shipped versus $21.5 million imported, per GACC data. However, Russia’s poultry exports to China fell 70% year-on-year, signaling a shift in regional trade dynamics.
Following allegations from domestic producers that Chinese subsidies generated unfair market conditions, the European Commission initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Peking duck imports in July 2026.
Private enterprises, which accounted for 56.9% of China’s foreign trade, drove growth in high-tech sectors.
China’s trade surplus could exceed $1 trillion in 2026, but risks remain. Crude oil imports fell 21.5% in September, and soybean imports declined 7.7%, per SOURCE 6.