Thanks to comparison with the historic splash of -6.8% of first quarter 2020, the economy of Dragon, even if slightly below expectations, it resumes its run and collects an 18.3% increase in GDP from January to March 2021 (+ 19% on consensus economists). However, this is the highest growth ever recorded in China in 30 years of surveys (since 1992) following the collapse of the economy in 2020 (however positive at year end: +2,3%) due to the outbreak of the pandemic especially in the first quarter of last year, when the Covid-19 had appeared during the Chinese New Year period in Wuhan, before then spreading from the region around the world. According to data provided by the Beijing National Statistics Bureau, in conjunctural terms, the growth is 0.6%.
The consolidation of domestic and foreign demand, as well as the continued support measures provided from the central government at small businesses they supported the recovery. But the expansion, heavily altered by the business collapse a year ago, should moderate over the course of this year after a 6.5% increase recorded in the fourth quarter of last year, while the government tries to contain the financial risks in overheated sectors of the economy.
The strength of domestic demand is recorded since boom also in March of retail sales which jumped 34.2% on an annual basis, outperforming the + 28% increase expected from consensus. Since the beginning of 2021, the figure has flown by 33.9%, better than the + 31.7% estimated and almost unchanged compared to the previous + 33.8% recorded for the months of January and February.
But the fixed investments they recorded a growth of 25.6% in the first three months of 2021, slowing compared to the 35% growth in the January-February period. As well as the industrial production: also in March it grew on an annual basis by 14.1%, less than the + 18% expected from consensus. Since the beginning of the year, the figure has shown growth of + 24.5%, compared to the estimated + 26.5% e in deceleration compared to the previous jump of 35.1%. A sign that the expansion in China is losing some momentum.
Despite the data confirming the recovery of economic activities, in fact the Beijing National Bureau of Statistics called for caution. “The international scenario is complicated by high uncertainties and instability“said the spokesman, Liu Aihua, and “le foundations for domestic economic recovery are not yet solid“.
The International Monetary Fund estimated that in 2021 the China will grow by 8.4%, ma la forecast is far above the conservative target set last month by the Dragon Prime Minister Li Keqiang according to which the increase in gross domestic product will be fixed above 6%, with the aim of creating 11 million new jobs.
“This positive sign was expected, I would almost say taken for granted, confirming the“ post-war ”reaction to the crisis triggered by the pandemic. What is surprising is not the trend but its extent “, he comments instead Mario Boselli, president of the Italy China Foundation. “The forced closure has pushed Chinese consumers to” go wild “in purchases on the domestic market and revenge shopping has exploded among people limited in travel abroad for work and especially for tourism, forced to remain locked in their own country. has positive effects for the retail system in Italy – especially in sectors such as luxury, fashion and lifestyle – damaged by the closed shops and the absence of foreign buyers, but there is still another side of the coin. were made in the Italian shopping streets now they mostly take place directly in China, in shops, department stores but also through e-commerce channels. internationally known brands to export more than ever in the Asian country it is good not only for them but also for the supply chains, which thus become indirect exporters “, says Boselli.