For months, China hesitated: it avoided condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but hinted that it opposes aggressive wars and insists on respecting recognized international borders. It also avoided, at least openly, supplying military equipment that could be used by Russia. She made sure to avoid any proposed resolution against Russia in the United Nations, but she also did not join the six or seven dictatorships that supported Russia.
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it changes. Last Friday, as part of the gathering of the G20 countries in Delhi, China was the only country, apart from Russia itself, that opposed a proposal for a tepid resolution in the case of Ukraine. Without mentioning Russia or Ukraine, the proposal stated that all countries agree to abide by the principles of the UN Charter, “including the protection of civilians and infrastructure during a military conflict,” and including the prohibition of “the use of nuclear weapons, or the threat to use them.”
Before, countries would sign such a text with their eyes closed. It was considered a necessary lip service. China itself has refrained from threats to use nuclear weapons, Chinese President Xi Jinping himself said these things to the German Chancellor on November 4. And four months later, the Chinese foreign minister is pushing a resolution proposal, which repeats with vigorous precision the words the supreme leader agreed to.
No one will tell China what to do
There is, of course, a parallel between the Chinese rapprochement with Russia and the deterioration of China’s relations with the West, and especially with the United States. It is difficult to decide what feeds what. President Biden’s advisers began to warn last month about the possibility that China would begin to fill Russia’s depleted weapons stockpiles. Secretary of State Lincoln warned Last Thursday, because “we have the authority to impose sanctions of all kinds”, China would act according to the intention attributed to it.
This is exactly what China wants to hear. American threats make its speakers jump out of their seats. First of all, these are “lies”; And secondly, no one will tell China what to do.
The question is much more complex than “no one will say”. The question is what is more important in China’s eyes: strengthening Russia at the expense of its vast commercial interests in the West, or preserving these interests at the expense of Russia.
The very discussion demonstrates the essential difference between the Cold War of the last century and the Cold War of today. At the time, the USA and the Soviet Union did their best to harm each other, without going to war. They did not have to consider the direct economic results. It is true that the USA could impose certain sanctions, such as stopping the export of grain to the Soviet Union in 1980. But trade relations between them were remarkably limited.
In 2021, on the other hand, trade between the US and China was about $650 billion. Chinese exports to the US amounted to $506 billion, 18% of all American imports. The Chinese advantage in the trade balance was therefore 355 billion dollars.
Separation of trade relations – not in the near future
What would happen if the trade stopped? This is an unrealistic possibility. It will have a drastic effect on prices and inflation in the US. But for the idea of ”decoupling”, there are now advocates in the US. They obviously do not come from the giants of American industry.
China’s antagonizing is unacceptable. It’s time for the Biden Administration to move boldly and raise tariffs on a wide swath of China’s exports and implement policies to rebuild domestic American manufacturing.
NEW Op-Ed ➔ https://t.co/seZwRDypMh pic.twitter.com/T0xijWrcV5
– The Coalition for a Prosperous America (@cpa_tradereform) February 21, 2023
The popular financial network site marketwatch.com published an article last month under the title “Freeing America’s economy from China will revive American industry and create millions of good-paying jobs.” The author is Jacques Mottel – an industrialist from the US Midwest, who heads the ‘Coalition for a Prosperous America.’
“Free the US economy from China”, an ad of an organization that advocates a “separation” between the two economic powers. Screenshot from Twitter
The affair of the hot air balloon that was shot down in February, fueled anti-Chinese sentiments. The ball crossed America to its full extent, loaded with spying and observation devices, and produced an abducted psychosis of dropping non-Chinese balloons. It is possible to speculate that further confirmation will follow last week’s announcement of a “moderate probability” that the corona virus leaked from a laboratory in the city of Wuhan.
This assessment comes from the director of the FBI, although others in American intelligence have come to opposite conclusions, or have come to no conclusion at all. Apparently, the assessment confirms conspiracy theories that have reached the White House of Donald Trump. They angered Beijing, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesmen retaliated with a counter theory, that the virus actually leaked from an American military laboratory.
An expression of the general atmosphere was given last week in Congress. The Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives authorized President Biden to fundamentally ban the use of the Chinese app TikTok, or any other app suspected of transmitting information to the Chinese government. The president has already decided to require de-Tictokization of every device owned by the federal government. Moreover, last Thursday, the Ministry of Commerce in Washington announced the restriction of sales of American technology to 37 companies and organizations in China, which endanger the national security of the United States.
China hits out as US bans TikTok on federal devices https://t.co/d9uUX6SVPR
– BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) February 28, 2023
The clear message of the US President
These restrictions join the “war on chips”, which President Biden declared on China five months ago, to deny it access to advanced technology that makes use of computing and semiconductors. Efforts are also being made to join Japan and the Netherlands, in order to complete the encirclement ring.
The seriousness of the crisis was felt in the warning of Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser. In an interview last week, he stated on the topic of Chinese aid to Russia that “if it continues like this, it will exact a significant price on China. And I think the Chinese leaders are considering this when they make their decisions.”
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan vowed there would be “real costs” for China if the country went forward with providing lethal aid to Russia in its war on Ukraine. https://t.co/dRdngVtimJ
– CNN (@CNN) February 26, 2023
One of the most important lessons from the Ukraine crisis is the need to anticipate and warn the adversaries of the full results and consequences of their actions. It seems that the USA is not satisfied with general warnings about its intentions, but is laying out before China the full sheet of the planned punishments if the regime in Beijing decides to fill Russia’s deficit.
Sullivan said in the aforementioned interview, “We are not satisfied with direct threats. We clarify what is at stake – and what the price will be… and we do so clearly and specifically, behind closed doors.”
The price can certainly be severe. China has just announced that it aims to return to rapid growth, 5% this year, after the withdrawal of the draconian corona lockdowns. Such growth will not be possible if China loses its export markets in America and Europe. But yesterday, China also announced, in its rubber-stamp parliament, that it would increase the defense budget by 7.2%. So what is more important to her, the guns or the socks?
It is probably not an exaggeration to say that the future of international relations depends quite a bit on the answer to this question.
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