China recently tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile that flew 7,000 kilometers across the Pacific, splashing down near Nauru and Tuvalu. While Beijing describes the move as routine, regional analysts and Pacific nations argue the test undermines the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga and the integrity of nuclear-weapons-free zones.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy launched the missile from a submarine off the Chinese coast on Monday, according to a map released by the Taiwan National Security Council. The rocket, which carried a dummy warhead for testing purposes, traveled southeast before landing near the archipelago nations of Nauru and Tuvalu.
Both Nauru and Tuvalu are members of the South Pacific Nuclear Weapons Free Zone. This zone, established by the Treaty of Rarotonga in 1986, prohibits the testing or stationing of nuclear weapons in the region’s waters and islands. Although China, the U.S., Russia, France, and the U.K. have signed protocols committing to the treaty, the recent test has sparked a diplomatic clash over the spirit
of the agreement.
The Treaty of Rarotonga and the “Spirit” of Non-Proliferation
Technically, the test did not violate the legal text of the treaty because the missile was not nuclear-tipped. However, the reaction from regional governments suggests the legal loophole is insufficient. New Zealand’s foreign minister stated that the test goes against the object and intent of that treaty, while Australia raised similar concerns regarding the stability of the zone.
Samuel pointed to a pattern of behavior among nuclear powers, citing U.S. pressure on the U.K. regarding Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and Russia’s attempts to push Kazakhstan to allow missile testing. The Chinese test is the latest example of this trend, Samuel noted, highlighting the hypocrisy of Beijing’s public support for nuclear weapons-free zones, including those in Southeast Asia, while conducting tests in the South Pacific.
Beijing’s Defense and the AUKUS Friction
China has dismissed the controversy, framing the operation as a standard military exercise. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that the launch activity was conducted safely, systematically, and professionally throughout, and urged other nations not to over-interpret it
. Beijing also noted that it provided several hours of advance notice to key regional governments.
This tension exists against a backdrop of accusations from China regarding the AUKUS deal. Since 2021, Beijing has argued that the partnership between Australia, the U.S., and the U.K. violates the Treaty of Rarotonga because Australia will receive up to eight nuclear submarines. These vessels use highly-enriched uranium for their onboard reactors, a point China has used to challenge Australia’s adherence to the same non-proliferation standards it is now being accused of ignoring.
Internal Corruption and the PLA Rocket Force
While China projects strength through Pacific tests, reports suggest significant internal failures within its strategic forces. According to businessinsider.com, citing U.S. intelligence, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has struggled with severe graft and equipment failure.
The intelligence indicates that some missiles in the Rocket Force—the branch responsible for nuclear weapons—were filled with water instead of fuel. Other failures included missile silos in Western China fitted with improper lids that prevented missiles from launching effectively.
These failures reportedly triggered a massive purge of top officials. More than a dozen senior commanders were ousted, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who vanished for two months before being replaced in October. At least three of the sacked commanders held top positions in the Rocket Force, and four were specifically responsible for equipment.
Strategic Recalibration and the “Race to the Bare Minimum”
The contrast between China’s outward missile posturing and its internal corruption creates a complex strategic picture. U.S. intelligence sources told Bloomberg that the severity of the graft in the Rocket Force might force President Xi Jinping to recalibrate whether Beijing can undertake major military action soon.
Externally, this behavior may erode international norms. Olamide Samuel warns that the combination of Chinese actions and pressure from the U.S. and Australia could lead to a slow spiral
and a race to the bare minimum
of what treaties demand, rather than pursuing aspirational peace goals.
The situation leaves a critical question for regional security: whether the Treaty of Rarotonga remains a meaningful deterrent or has become a mere formality that nuclear powers will ignore whenever geostrategic interests dictate.
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