[‘미중 무역전쟁 시즌2’ 새우등 한국]
AI chips and other technologies are ‘rising’ with massive investment in China
Pushing out low-priced products is also a burden for companies
As the possibility of the US strengthening its regulations on China increases ahead of the presidential election, China is also preparing for a trade war by mobilizing various means. There are also predictions that China will use export control of mineral resources that it dominates in the global supply chain as a weapon or focus on attacking specific companies.
A senior business official expressed concern on the 8th, saying, “For Korea, this could be an opportunity to widen the technological gap with China, but it could also result in increased uncertainty, such as Chinese retaliation, restrictions on access to the Chinese market, and stimulation of China’s own technology development.”
● “China, Japan pressure Toyota to retaliate”
Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that a senior Chinese government official threatened Japan with “strong economic retaliation if it actively participates in U.S. semiconductor export controls.” The U.S. is demanding that Japanese semiconductor equipment companies such as Tokyo Electron participate in export controls against China. If Japan accepts this and restricts the export of Japanese semiconductor equipment to China, China will block mineral exports, which will hit Japan’s finished car industry, including Toyota. Toyota is also an investor in Rapidus, a semiconductor company established by Japan to revive semiconductors.
It is known that Japan is also deeply concerned about the pressure from China that the nightmare of the 2010 ‘rare earth export suspension’ could happen again. At that time, amid the territorial dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, China temporarily suspended exports of rare earths, which are essential minerals for the electronics industry, and the entire Japanese manufacturing industry was shaken.
Some point out that Korea is also vulnerable to China’s retaliation for “weaponizing resources” because it is highly dependent on China for key minerals. A semiconductor industry insider said, “Since the Biden administration, we have invested heavily in the U.S., but at the same time, we are highly dependent on China, which suggests that we must also prepare for concerns about economic retaliation from China.”
● Concerns over Chinese semiconductor industry
As the US strengthens its regulations on mass semiconductors, China’s self-reliance is also a long-term threat to the Korean semiconductor industry. There have already been notable increases in the number of cases of semiconductor development by Chinese companies that have received massive subsidies from the Chinese government. Last month, foreign media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Huawei was about to mass-produce the latest artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor, the ‘Ascend 910C (Chinese name: Shengteng 910C),’ causing a stir in the semiconductor industry. It has developed its own AI semiconductor about two years after the US government’s export control of AI semiconductors to the public began in October 2022, which blocked the supply of Nvidia’s advanced chips. Another domestic semiconductor industry insider said, “One of the biggest concerns as exchanges with the Chinese market are cut off due to US regulations is that we are now ‘in the dark’ about the level of development taking place in China.” In the long term, there is also the possibility that China may enter the high-value memory market, which is currently being led by domestic companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the global AI market.
As China’s economy is rapidly slowing down, China’s recession due to mass restrictions could also be a headache for the Korean economy. Due to the long-term economic slowdown, China’s finished goods inventory ratio has already increased from 1.68% in November last year to 4.67% as of June this year. The increasing finished goods inventory will lead to a “push-pull low-price offensive.” A Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry official said, “If the U.S. strengthens tariffs on China and China’s domestic market does not recover, there is a good chance that it will continue to aggressively pursue other markets (including Korea).”
Reporter Jeon Nam-hyeok [email protected]
Reporter Kwak Do-young [email protected]
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2024-09-09 18:26:10