New Flu Variant with Pandemic Potential Detected in Cattle, Spreads Through Air
A newly identified influenza D virus (IDV) variant, originating in cattle, is raising global health concerns due to its potential to jump from animals to humans and its ability to spread through the air. Experts warn the virus, detected in China and now found across multiple continents, exhibits “alarming exposure rates” and could trigger a new pandemic.
Global Spread and Emerging Threat
Researchers led by Hongbo Bao at the Changchun Veterinary Research Institute have been examining the newly emerging strain, initially discovered in cattle in Northeastern China in 2023. Their findings suggest the IDV may have transitioned from a pathogen limited to animals to one capable of human-to-human transmission. According to experts, current strains “already pose a potential panzootic” – the animal equivalent of a human pandemic threat.
The virus was first identified in 2011 in Oklahoma, where a pig exhibited flu-like symptoms. Since then, cattle have become the primary carriers of IDV, creating a risk for those working closely with livestock. The variant has since been detected in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa, affecting a range of animals including goats, sheep, horses, camels, and dogs.
“Our findings indicate that IDV may have acquired the capacity for human-to-human transmission during its ongoing evolution,” one expert stated. The research team found the virus can spread not only through direct contact with animals but also through airborne transmission, a particularly concerning development.
Silent Spread and Subclinical Infections
A key worry is the virus’s ability to spread “silently,” often without displaying noticeable symptoms. Researchers note that in recent years, IDV frequently arrives in new regions undetected. This raises concerns about enhanced infectivity and transmissibility.
“Unobserved subclinical infections could be important in transmission, silently sustaining epidemics at the population level,” the research team concluded. The possibility of unseen chains of transmission spreading through both livestock and humans is a significant challenge for public health officials.
Echoes of COVID-19 and European Risk
The emergence of this new flu variant is prompting comparisons to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientists are warning that conditions mirroring those that led to the COVID-19 outbreak in China may now be developing in Europe.
The prevailing “natural origins” hypothesis, supported by the World Health Organisation (WHO), suggests the COVID-19 virus jumped from bats to humans via an intermediary animal, likely a pig exposed to bat droppings. Researchers have now identified similar conditions at 14 pig farms in Italy, where eight different bat species are frequently present.
These bats visit the farms an average of 45 times per night, and testing revealed that 15% of the bats were infected with at least one strain of coronavirus, with the most frequent visitor carrying two strains. This situation underscores the potential for zoonotic spillover – the transmission of a disease from animals to humans – and the need for heightened surveillance.
The team summarized their findings by stating it is “likely that IDV outbreak has metastasised into an ongoing problem for cattle and humans.” Continued monitoring and research are crucial to understanding the evolving threat posed by this new influenza variant and preventing a potential global pandemic.
