China’s economic recovery only benefits… China!

2023-05-20 10:00:00

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CHRONIC. The resumption of Chinese growth is not good for Europe or the United States. But it is not eternal.

By Patrick Artus

China’s growth is currently strong and it is not benefiting the global economy.
© By Han Guan/AP/SIPA / SIPA / By Han Guan/AP/SIPA

Published on 05/20/2023 at 10:00 a.m.

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L’end of containment due to the Covid epidemic at the beginning of 2023 caused a sharp recovery in the Chinese economy. This can be measured by growth in the first quarter (4.5%, compared to growth oscillating between 0 and 3% in 2022) and by production expectations which have risen sharply. But it must be understood that the nature of the recovery of growth in China excludes that this recovery has a favorable effect on the rest of the world.

On the contrary, the nature of China’s growth in 2023 and 2024 will penalize other countries instead of benefiting them. The first remarkable point is that the recovery of the Chinese economy is concentrated on domestic services. The leading indicators of production show very strong growth in services in China and a…