China’s government expects the Chinese economy to recover significantly in the third quarter. A day before the release of the new growth figures, the head of the powerful Reform and Development Commission (NDRZ), Zhao Chenxin, told the press at the Communist Party congress in Beijing on Monday: “The economy really recovered in the third quarter.”
Big shocks
He acknowledged “difficulties and challenges” as well as “bigger than expected shocks” this year. There have been some monthly fluctuations due to the external environment, the pandemic, extreme weather and other unexpected factors, the top economic leader said. But overall, the second largest economy is on the recovery course. They also show great resilience.
In particular, the restrictions imposed by China’s strict zero-Covid strategy with lockdowns, mass tests and quarantines are slowing down the economy. As the rest of the world tries to live with the virus, China’s leadership remains committed to nipping any outbreak in the bud. The zero-tolerance goal is becoming more and more difficult to meet due to the new variants, which are spreading more easily.
In the second quarter, the economy only grew by 0.4 percent. Experts expect an estimated 3.5 percent in the third quarter. The government will fall far short of its original growth target of 5.5 percent for this year. The statistics office announces the new figures for the third quarter on Tuesday.
The World Bank expects only 2.8 percent for the whole year in China. That would be only the second time in four decades that China’s growth has been so low, following the first year of the 2020 pandemic.
“For the first time since 1990, the rest of Asia is growing faster than China,” said Jörg Wuttke, head of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. He pointed out that other Asian countries dealt with Covid-19 “fundamentally differently” and had “returned to normal”. According to the World Bank, the region excluding China is expected to grow by a total of 5.3 percent this year.
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