China’s production of a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines is raising concerns among analysts and defense attaches about the ability to track them, thereby intensifying a submarine arms race between China and the United States. The construction of China’s Type 096 ballistic missile submarine, expected to be operational before the end of the decade, is believed to be aided by Russian technology, enhancing its stealth capabilities and making them difficult to detect. The deployment of these submarines could have “profound” implications for the U.S. and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
The current effort to track China’s nuclear-powered and -armed submarines, known as SSBNs, is one of the key drivers behind increased deployments and contingency planning by the U.S. Navy and other militaries. The new Type 096 submarines are anticipated to be significantly quieter compared to their predecessors, making them harder to detect. This progress in China’s submarine capabilities is cause for concern among the U.S. and its allies, as it could alter the strategic balance in the region.
According to satellite imagery and research, the construction of the Type 096 submarines is progressing on schedule, with these submarines likely to be larger than the Type 094 submarines. This increased size will enable them to incorporate advanced techniques, such as rubber supports to dampen engine noise, similar to Russian designs. This will further enhance their stealthiness and make them comparable to advanced Russian submarines.
Given the advancements in China’s submarine capabilities, the tracking and surveillance of these vessels has become an international effort, with countries like Japan and India assisting the U.S., Australia, and Britain. Anti-submarine warfare drills and deployments of sub-hunting aircraft, like the P-8 Poseidon, are increasing in the region. The U.S. is also undergoing a major overhaul of its undersea surveillance network to counter China’s growing presence.
The emergence of quieter Chinese submarines is a driving force behind the recent AUKUS deal between Australia, Britain, and the United States. This deal will lead to increased deployments of British and U.S. attack submarines to Western Australia. Australia also plans to launch its first nuclear-powered attack submarines with British technology by the 2030s.
Experts are noting the significance of China’s advancements in submarine technology, as they are potentially ahead of the first AUKUS submarines. However, in order for China to match the capabilities of AUKUS submarines, they would need intensive training and development over the next decade.
While it is believed that China may have obtained some Russian technology in the past, there is no known sharing agreement with Russia outside of a nuclear reactor agreement from 2010. Chinese engineers may have made breakthroughs by adapting Russian designs or through other means, including espionage. Despite these advancements, it is unlikely that China possesses the newest-generation Russian systems.
In conclusion, the intensifying submarine arms race and China’s production of advanced submarines are raising concerns about tracking and surveillance capabilities. The development of quieter and more advanced submarines has significant implications for the U.S. and its allies, leading to increased deployments and strategic planning in the Indo-Pacific region.