China’s peace mission in Ukraine kicks off as Russia redoubles its attacks

2023-05-17 06:28:35

A five-country visit by a top Chinese diplomat this week, including stops in Kyiv and Moscow, could shed hope on the role Beijing seeks to carve out as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war. It is a tour with which the Chinese president, Xi Jinpingaspires to bolster his credentials as a world peacemaker, despite doubts about his neutrality.

After monitoring the evolution of the hostilities with great interest, for 14 months, and showing his sympathy to Vladimir Putin, Xi has moved his long-awaited token. Hand in hand with him, Beijing’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, began his tour on Tuesday with a two-day visit to Ukraine. Later, she plans travel to Poland, France, Germany and Russiawhich places China among the few countries that send representatives to the two warring parties.

There is skepticism about Beijing’s ability to manage and resolve a conflict as complex, bitter and entrenched as the one between Ukraine and Russia. Judging by the order of the stops, experts believe that Li will seek Ukraine’s demands and opinions firstnext, it will communicate those appreciations to the main parties involved in the crisis and, finally, it will seek the Russian response to all this wealth of information.

However, his arrival coincides with the intensification of Russian war actions in the Ukrainian capital. Air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine early Tuesday as multiple explosions were heard in Kyiv, marking the eighth Russian attack on the capital in May.

Already in April, the Chinese president announced that his country would send an emissary to Ukraine, in what was his first call with Zelensky since the large-scale Russian invasion. In the conversation, Xi assured his counterpart that his country would not add “fuel to the fire” in the fighting and would not provide direct military aid to Russia. The conversation was “long and significant”, according to Zelenski, who stressed that “There can be no peace at the expense of territorial commitments” and demanded the restoration of his country’s “territorial integrity” as a precondition for talks.

Li was the longest-serving Chinese ambassador to Russia, holding the post for a decade, until 2019. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has touted him as the right man for the job, calling him “well-versed in relevant issues and capable of play a positive role in facilitating reconciliation talks”. During his tenure in Moscow, Sino-Russian relations intensified, as he oversaw the strengthening of economic ties.

The former diplomat is fluent in Russian and fond of Russian literature, which is why he cites writers such as Alexander Pushkin, Leo Tolstoy or Fyodor Dostoyevsky. As proof of the consideration that the Kremlin has for him, months before leaving his post as ambassador, he received the prestigious Medal of the Order of Friendship from Putin, for his efforts to improve ties between the two countries.

The extent of progress Li may make is unknown. Already in 2023, Kyiv dismissed the Chinese suggestion of a ceasefire, as it implied the immobilization of Russian troops on Ukrainian territory. In addition, the fact of betting on a more Zelensky-friendly solution carries the risk of antagonizing Putin, to whom Xi proclaimed his friendship “without limits” on the eve of the Russian invasion.

Still, this trip coincides with the G7 leaders’ summit in Japan, which begins on Friday. The emissary will have to fight skepticism from the group, who are expected to underscore their unity in condemning Russian actions, without forgetting concern about China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

It should be noted that China has deployed intense diplomatic activity with European countries, hosting the French president in Beijing, Emmanuel Macronand sending to the vice president Han Zheng and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang, on tour in Europe. At each meeting, European representatives have urged this country to take advantage of its weight over Russia to expedite the end of the conflict.

However, the European Union and NATO have criticized Beijing’s attempts to set itself up as an intermediary, questioning the Asian country’s ability to act as a neutral.

For its part, Beijing has conveyed the principle that they must “jointly reject a new Cold War”, as stated by the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Wenbin, on Monday. “We hope that the European side will not be influenced by ideological differences, overcome external shocks, maintain its strategic autonomy, form its independent and objective perception of China, and adopt a positive and rational policy towards China,” Wang stressed.