By mark.thompson business editor
China’s trade surplus has surged past $1 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, reaching $1.04 trillion as a massive wave of demand for artificial intelligence hardware and green energy products drives record-breaking export growth. According to data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs, the nation has hit this milestone one month earlier than it did during last year’s record-breaking period.
The surplus expansion was propelled by a sharp rise in exports, which grew 35.2% year-on-year in October to reach $412.3 billion. While imports also rose 41.6% in October, the gap between outgoing and incoming goods resulted in a monthly trade surplus of $105.3 billion. This monthly figure represents a narrowing from the $133.5 billion surplus recorded in September, largely due to the accelerating pace of imports.
The primary engine behind the recent export boom is the global investment craze in artificial intelligence. High demand for data center infrastructure has sent prices soaring for related components. Specifically, China’s integrated circuit exports in October reached $39.594 billion, a staggering 137.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Chips and computer components alone accounted for approximately 40% of the total year-to-date increase in China’s export value.
Beyond semiconductors, the “new three” pillars of Chinese manufacturing—solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries—continue to find strong global demand. October data shows that automobile exports rose 37.62% to $19.692 billion, while mobile phone exports increased by 13.18% to $17.569 billion. Other notable growth areas included a 45.02% increase in rare earth exports and an 80.3% surge in refined oil exports.
The strength of the export sector is also being supported by the global green energy transition. As international oil prices rose following attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese demand for green technology stayed high. However, to ensure domestic supply, China implemented restrictions on the export of certain petroleum products, including diesel and aviation kerosene, to neighboring countries.
While exports are driving the surplus, the cost of maintaining high-tech manufacturing is reflected in a sharp rise in imports. From January to October, imports of automatic data processing equipment and parts grew by 135.7%, while integrated circuit imports rose by 65.1%. Analysts noted that these high-value electronic components now account for 20.0% of China’s total import value, exerting strong upward pressure on the overall import growth rate.
Despite the headline-grabbing surplus, economic complexities remain. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, noted that overcapacity in various industries, high domestic savings, and weak domestic demand continue to push Chinese goods toward overseas markets, a situation she described as unsustainable. This trend has led some nations to implement protective measures for their own industries.
The trade data arrives as geopolitical tensions loom over upcoming diplomatic meetings. Chinese leaders are expected to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump later this month during the APEC summit in Shenzhen, where trade frictions and tariff policies are expected to be central topics.
Looking ahead, some analysts warn that if the AI boom slows or undergoes an adjustment, it could depress the prices of chips and electronics, potentially impacting China’s export volumes.
As of October, both China’s imports and exports have maintained double-digit growth for six consecutive months.