TRIBUNE – My legitimacy around this question is linked to my technical work for years. My company, World Advance Research Project Agency (WARPA), conducts current projects in the stratosphere (which is the upper layer of the atmosphere, which is between 12 and 50 km above sea level).
I was horrified by what I could hear in the various traditional media about this unfortunate Chinese balloon, presented as a spy tool which would be guided and would have flown, intentionally, over certain sensitive American sites. What exactly do we see in the images shown? A sphere ! Without wishing to do great mathematics, let us recall that the drag of a body which goes at speed ν in the air is given by the formula:
T = 1/2 pSn2Cx
Where ρ is the air density, S = V 2/3 for an airship, V being its volume, and Cx is the drag coefficient, which is characteristic of the shape, just like a car. Now, for a sphere, we have Cx= 0.5 whereas for a cigar-like aspect, we have Cx = 0.017 or 30 times less under equal conditions! To suggest, under these conditions, that the balloon could have been designed for any kind of espionage is not only to take us for idiots, but the Chinese too.
That’s not all ! In this season, at an altitude of 20 km and 45° north latitude, the average winds are around 30 m/s, or about 100 km/h. You should know that the power required and the energy to be stored increase as the cube of the speed. Thus, between countering a blast velocity at 20 m/s and one at 30 m/s, the need is multiplied by 3.38. Conversely, the winds in May are almost nil. If China had therefore had bad intentions, it would surely not have chosen the month of February!
Moreover, current technologies put candidates for such types of gear at a maximum capacity of 20 m/s. With disruptive, while remaining orthodox, we can hope to reach 25 m/s, beyond that, we have to have other ideas… We see that China, which remains above all a scientifically conservative country, would not have, yet once, not selected February for such an attempt.
Let’s continue by looking again at the images that have been released. To move forward, a propeller is needed. At such an altitude, the atmospheric pressure is about 45 hPa. This is very low compared to the 1000 hPa that we have at sea level. This implies, to move, a mixing by the thruster of a large volume of air given the strong winds and therefore very large propellers … which we have not seen! Here again, we were told a fable! The balloon was not or only slightly motorized, except at the margin for local and minimal control necessary, but certainly not to reach the United States from China.
While we’re at it, let’s wonder, since he was supposed to be spying, how and by what means the information got back to China. By satellite? Geostationary in orbital position in vision of the United States? Not very believable! And, anyway, the Americans know very well if there were emissions from the machine, in what direction and with what intensity. What is important to keep in mind is that it is imperative to relay, direct communication between the ball and its owner being complicated given the distances. Strangely, no information was given on this subject.
The Americans finally, as usual, played the bullshit, shooting at the target and knocking it down. There is no feat here, but rather a tree that hides the forest and deludes the viewer. Indeed, if we monitor our airspace effectively, we bring down the intruder avant that it does not return and we avoid playing the frightened virgins once the craft has crossed its territory and flown over its sensitive sites. It is therefore a double fault that has been camouflaged here: that of Canada which has not done its job and that of the Americans. For the former, Trudeau’s reaction was pathetic, as usual, and this country of 30 million inhabitants, too sparsely populated, probably does not have the means to really effectively watch over its domain. Notice therefore to the Russians and the Chinese if one day they plan to start a conflict. For the Americans, they had surely never projected that an attack could come from Canada. That should make them think. Not that Canada, a colonized and controlled vassal, could dream of emancipating itself one day, but quite simply because it is a strategic sieve due to a lack of resources, human resources in particular.
It remains for us, in this case, to deal with the aspect of the violation of American space by the Chinese. It depends on the height reached by the ball. Basically, between zero and 18 km, the sky is national. Above, in any case. However, we had no precision on the exact altitude of flight. We bet that the United States are not the only ones to know this. We supposedly have satellites capable of seeing the sea level rise by 3 mm per year, they must have been able to measure where the intruder was! But it will surely be classified, so that diplomacy can continue to roll on the ground or be silent as was the case during the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.
Now, this case highlights an underlying and very political question which is the desire of certain actors to regulate altitudes between 18 and 160 km, drawing inspiration from the law of the sea. I will come back to this in a future article. subject by commenting on the proposals made in detail. Big Brother is always looking to gain traction. But we would have been disappointed, wouldn’t we, if it hadn’t been so.
In the meantime, turn off your television sets, what they tell you there is nothing but nonsense. Proof of this has been given here. As for the “officers” of sets on the traditional media, that is to say those who officiate there, including those who are military, their crass ignorance cannot inform you of anything, and could only lead you In error.
Jean-François Geneste is former Scientific Director of Airbus Group and current CEO of WARPA.