Xi Jinping Seeks to Bolster China’s Influence in South Africa Amid Strained Ties with the US
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is embarking on a three-day state visit to South Africa, aiming to strengthen Beijing’s influence among developing and emerging nations. With ties between China and the United States remaining strained and economic troubles brewing domestically, Xi’s visit to South Africa and the summit with leaders of the BRICS emerging economies present an opportunity to advance his vision for a more multipolar world.
The BRICS grouping, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, accounts for over 40% of the global population and shares a desire for a greater say in global affairs. Xi’s long-term goal is to change the world order into a Sino-centric one, said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London. To support this ambition, China has been engaging more with the Global South, which is more numerous and predominantly authoritarian in governance structure.
Ahead of Xi’s visit, China’s ambassador to South Africa, Chen Xiaodong, described BRICS as an important platform for cooperation among emerging and developing nations and the backbone of international fairness and justice. Chen noted that the traditional global governance system appears to be out of order and expressed the expectation for BRICS to play a leading role.
Xi’s trip to South Africa comes shortly after US President Joe Biden met with the leaders of Japan and South Korea in a show of solidarity against rising threats from China. The summit saw the US and its Asian allies deepen military and economic cooperation, while criticizing China’s “dangerous and aggressive behavior” in the South China Sea.
The BRICS summit holds strategic relevance for China in the midst of its intensifying rivalry with the United States. The summit, in the absence of Vladimir Putin, offers Xi the opportunity to exert influence, particularly in the Global South.
However, Xi’s visit comes at a challenging time domestically. China’s much-anticipated economic rebound from its COVID-19 lockdowns is faltering, with the economy facing a confluence of problems, including a property crisis, mounting local government debt, and deflationary pressure. The country’s youth unemployment rate is particularly concerning, prompting the Chinese government to suspend releasing the data altogether.
The struggling economy poses a constraint on Xi’s diplomatic efforts, especially in the Global South, where China typically delivers aid, finance, and cooperation deals. The economic performance is limiting Xi’s ability to present himself as a great power leader, according to Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank. Moreover, the Chinese government faces growing skepticism from the public regarding lavish spending abroad, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.
Facing economic constraints, China has become more selective in choosing foreign projects to finance. However, it has increased political and military engagement in Africa, including party-to-party engagement, the establishment of Confucius Institutes, and training African officers in military academies in China.
Xi’s visit to South Africa marks his first trip to Africa in five years. While his previous visit in 2018 included stops in Senegal, Rwanda, and Mauritius, this time he will solely co-chair the China-Africa Leaders’ Dialogue with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. The dialogue will take place on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, and all African states have been invited to attend.
As Xi seeks to strengthen China’s influence in South Africa and the Global South, the visit also serves as an opportunity for Beijing to navigate its domestic challenges and recalibrate its international engagements amid strained relations with the United States.