2017-01-29 10:05:49
Global warming is not only happening, but it is happening faster than previously estimated. The year 2016 has been the hottest since data is available. This implies that 16 of the 17 hottest years in history have happened in the 21st century. The year 1998 is the remaining one. These new data undoubtedly support the reality of global warming of the planet. Two new studies, published in the journal Science Advances, come to provide us with even clearer messages than those already obtained so far on the extent of global warming and its dramatic consequences in the medium and long term.
The first of the studies, carried out by researchers from the University of California with the collaboration of NASA and the California Institute of Technology, analyzes the recent review of the increase in sea surface temperature carried out by the National Oceanic Administration and the US atmosphere, known as NOAA, for its acronym in English.
Previous NOAA estimates indicated that the average temperature of the ocean surface was increasing by 0.07ºC per decade. However, using more modern information and applying a series of techniques to minimize these biases, NOAA has re-evaluated these measures and corrected their estimates. Based on these corrections, the average temperature of the oceans is rising by 0.12ºC per decade, significantly higher than the previously estimated 0.07ºC.
Now, the researchers have analyzed the new data by different methods, such as sensor buoys, satellite radiometric measurements, and floats from the Argo program, and their analyzes have confirmed the new NOAA estimates. So, global warming is not only happening, but it is happening faster than previously estimated.
The second of the studies, carried out by researchers also from the University of California, analyzes the effects of oceanic global warming on the largest ocean currents, which distribute heat from the equator and the tropics to northern latitudes. One of the most important currents in this regard is the well-known Gulf Stream, which makes winter temperatures in northern Europe tolerable.
To try to predict what may happen in the future, researchers build computer models that simulate possible scenarios based on various parameters, such as the previously measured rate of ocean temperature rise or the amount of CO2 and methane emissions that they are estimated to occur over the years according to different scenarios.
To date, these models predicted that the Gulf Stream would remain stable. However, the new models indicate that if the amount of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 were to double, which is not impossible, the current would disappear in 300 years, paradoxically causing massive cooling. in Europe.
More information on Jorge Laborda’s Blog. “New perspectives on global warming”:
Referencias: Hausfather et al. Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records. Sci. Adv. 2017;3: e1601207. Wei Liu, et al. Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. Sci. Adv. 2017;3: e1601666.
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