Cienciaes.com: When will the decarbonization of humanity?

2020-01-21 01:53:13

Climate change seems to have finally permeated all layers of society. Many have already suffered its consequences and sooner or later we will all suffer them. The causes of climate change also seem to be very clear: human activity, causing huge CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, has been responsible.

It is evident that in order, firstly, to stop and, if possible, reverse this state of affairs, firstly, we must stop the emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere and, secondly, we will have to capture and remove from the atmosphere the excess CO2 emitted if we want to return to the average temperature that the planet had before the industrial revolution.

Some experts have made calculations that clearly indicate the situation in which we find ourselves. One of these calculations tries to estimate what it would be necessary to do to achieve a zero CO2 emission economy by 2050. The calculation begins with the fact that the world currently burns 12 billion tons of fossil fuels every day. From now to 2050 there are only about 11,000 days left, so every day we should reduce the consumption of fossil fuels by more than a million tons, even in the face of increasing demand due to the increase in population.

Well, to achieve this reduction, Humanity would have to put into operation, hold on, between one and two nuclear power plants every day. If we don’t like nuclear power, we could replace every nuclear plant with about 1,500 good-size wind generators, daily, for the next 30 years. Excuse me for laughing, but it is obvious that the world is doing neither one thing nor the other, and this is the reason why, far from decreasing, CO2 emissions continue to increase.

On the other hand, even the previous measures would not be enough, because current technology does not allow the energy generated by wind turbines or solar panels to be accumulated and distributed to users with the same ease that fossil fuels can be distributed.

In short, we are far from being able to reach the ideal situation of not using fossil fuels and stopping global warming. Therefore, many scientists believe that to avoid this we must develop technologies that capture the CO2 released into the atmosphere and thus prevent it from preventing infrared radiation from escaping into outer space. These CO2 capture technologies already exist and some countries, such as Canada and Norway, have CO2 capture plants, although they are clearly insufficient on a global scale.
This technology is also very effective. According to the latest data, it would be possible to capture 90% of the CO2 emitted by a thermal power plant, or by a steel production plant, if they had an attached CO2 capture plant. It is not the totality of what was issued, but it is a very important fraction.
Unfortunately, we only have about forty CO2 capture plants in the world.

Fortunately, CO2 can be very valuable to generate materials and substances that we produce today from oil. Again, it will be necessary to mature the technology, but capturing CO2 can be an activity that is not only good for the planet, but also economically profitable.

So, when will we achieve the decarbonization of Humanity, zero CO2 emissions? The most optimistic estimate that perhaps by 2050. The least optimistic postulate that it will be achieved by 2100. Be that as it may, everyone agrees that this goal will cost tens of billions of euros, perhaps even more.

Reference:

Jorge Laborda, January 19, 2020

Outreach works by Jorge Laborda

Kilo of Science Volume I. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume II. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume III. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume IV. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume V. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume VI. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume VII. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume VIII. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume IX. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume X. Jorge Laborda
Kilo of Science Volume XI. Jorge Laborda