Europe will warm up, the sea level it will continue to rise putting cities and beaches at risk while, if global warming continues to rise at these rates, entire areas could reach an irreversible condition of aridity. Through four risk categories, from those caused by heat waves to those for agricultural production and focus on Europe, the Mediterranean and drought, to explain which aspects most closely concern Europe, described in the IPCC report ‘Climate Change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’ are the Italian authors Piero Lionello of the University of Salento and of the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Gustavo Naumann of the Cima Foundation (International Center for Environmental Monitoring). Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies four categories of key risks for Europe. The level of each risk increases as the level of global warming increases. And even if the level of adaptation to climate change remains low, these risks become more serious.
Heat waves, agricultural production, water scarcity and floods – Warming will reduce suitable habitats for current terrestrial and marine ecosystems and irreversibly change their composition, with effects whose severity will increase if the 2 ° C warming threshold is exceeded. As regards the heat wavesexperts predict that the number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress it will double or triple for a 3 ° C temperature rise, compared to a 1.5 ° C increase. Adaptation measures on this front, with multiple interventions on buildings and urban spaces, should be “anticipated in southern Europe, where the risk is greater than in the more northern areas”. Another concrete risk is that which concerns the agricultural production. “Due to a combination of heat and drought – he explains Piero Lionelloprofessor of Oceanography and Atmospheric Physics – are expected in the 21st century substantial losses in terms of agricultural production for most of the European areas, which will not be offset by the expected earnings for Northern Europe ”. And if the risk of scarce water resources for southern Europe is already high for a global warming level of 1.5 ° C, it would become very high if activated at + 3 ° C. In these regions, the demand for water resources already exceeds the actual availability today. The IPCC warns: “In the event of a high level of warming, a large portfolio of interventions is required which, however, may not be sufficient to avoid the lack of adequate water resources in southern Europe”. But in the event of exceeding 3 ° C, the risk of water scarcity would also become high in central-western Europe. And then there is the risk associated with the major frequency e intensity Of floods. “Due to changes in rainfall and sea level rise – explains Lionello – the risks to people and infrastructures deriving from coastal, river and rainwater flooding will increase in many regions of Europe”.
The future of the Mediterranean region – The Mediterranean region has warmed and will continue to warm more than the global average, particularly in the summer. This applies to both terrestrial and marine environments, as well as to average temperatures and heat waves. The region will become drier but, at the same time, extreme rainfall will increase in some areas. “The sea level will rise following the global average value” explain the authors and it will be “a irreversible increase and progressive on centuries-old scales “. The higher the average temperature of the planet, the greater the impacts on the Mediterranean region. The risks are particularly high for people and children ecosystems in the Mediterranean basin due to the combination of various factors. For example, because we are talking about a large and growing urban population, exposed to heat waves, with limited access to air conditioning, because there is a large and growing number of people living in areas affected by the rise in the level of the sea, for the serious and growing water shortagealready tested today by countries of North Africa and Middle East and for the growing demand for water from agriculture. But also for the high economic dependence on tourism “Which risks being affected – explain the authors – by the increase in heat but also by the consequences of international policies to reduce emissions on air and cruise travel and by the loss of marine ecosystems, ecosystems in wetlands, rivers and also in mountain areas “. The sea level in the Mediterranean rose 1.4 millimeters per year over the course of the twentieth century. The increase accelerated at the turn of the century and is expected to continue to grow in the future at a rate similar to the global average, potentially reaching values close to one meter in 2100 in the event of a high level of emissions. Sea level rise will continue over the next few centuries even as greenhouse gas concentrations stabilize. Sea level rise already has an impact on the Mediterranean coasts and will increase the risks of coastal flooding, erosion and salinisation in the future. The narrow sandy shores, which are of great value to coastal ecosystems and tourism, are at risk of disappearing.
Water resources, risks and solutions – In southern Europe, the number of days with insufficient water resources (availability below demand) and drought increases in all global warming scenarios. With an increase of 1.5 ° C and 2 ° C the water scarcity will concern, respectively, the 18% and 54% of the population. Similarly, soil aridity will increase with increasing global warming: in a 3 ° C rise in temperature scenario, thesoil dryness will be higher than 40% compared to a scenario with an increase of 1.5 ° C. The current adaptation is mainly based on structures that ensure the availability and supply of water resources, but these structures – explain the authors – create “a vicious circle in which the water supply attracts developments that require its further increase. Furthermore, in the case of high global warming, these structures could become insufficient ”. Adaptation can also be based on the management of water resource demand, with monitoring mechanisms, restrictions, tariffs, savings and efficiency measures, land management. Increased irrigation efficiency has already reduced water scarcity, particularly in the southern regions. “However – explains Lionello – in the presence of high levels of heating, water saving and efficiency measures may not be sufficient to counteract the reduced availability of the resource”.
Drought: the expected scenarios – One of the key themes of the report is that of Drought, on which the future of several sectors depends: agriculture, energy production and industry, water supply for homes and ecosystems. As he explains Gustavo Naumann, from the long-term analyzes, significant increases in the risk of drought emerge in all scenarios, especially for the Mediterranean area. In relation to prolonged periods of drought, the risk of an irreversible condition of aridity emerges, linked above all to higher levels of global warming. “For example in Europe – adds the expert – this condition of aridity would affect a growing portion of the population: with warming of 3 ° C above pre-industrial levels, it is estimated that 170 million of people will be affected by extreme drought. Containing the heating to 1.5 ° C, the exposed population would drop to 120 million ”. In the scenarios that do not foresee the containment of the rise in temperature, by the end of the century a risk associated with drought in the urban environment is expected to be “significantly higher than current historical records”. The effects of drought, however, can be more severe in regions whose balance is closely linked to the function of glaciers. Among the strategies that help to mitigate the risk and effects of drought are reforestation or solutions that involve agriculture based on species that need less water. “In this context – explains Naumann – it is important to remember that some actions used to deal with drought can fall within the so-called ‘maladaptation’”, ie solutions that have benefits in one sector but can produce negative effects on other areas. An example, explains the author, concerns desalination through which the availability of water resources is increased for specific areas (such as agriculture) but with an extremely energy-intensive practice.