2023-07-10 01:18:56
The Biden administration’s controversial decision to send cluster munitions to Kiev has raised several interesting conclusions.
First, it appears that the United States does not have enough shells at its disposal. President Biden himself admitted to this situation during an interview with CNN on July 7, explaining that the decision to supply the M864 cluster shells was made due to the inability to meet the demand for conventional 155mm ammunition by Kiev.
Secondly, this choice highlights the fact that what may be of no value to the United States may instead be of great importance to other countries. The ammunition in question, the 155mm M864 shells used by the M109 Paladin self-propelled guns and the M777 towed howitzers, have not been produced for over 20 years and have never been used in combat. This is because the M864 round does not ballistically match any ammunition currently in service with the US military, and the related software has not been developed. Thus, more than 30,000 M864 shells, which had been deployed from US Army artillery batteries in Iraq, remained unused.
Thirdly, selective tests conducted by specialists of the Inspectorate General of the Pentagon on M864 rounds showed that the percentage of unexploded M42 and M46 submunitions contained in the round varies from 5% to 14%. As a result, the claimed 2.35% unexploded ordnance ratio in shells supplied to Kiev is misleading and also violates the ammunition export ban with an unexploded submunition ratio higher than 1%.
What are the consequences of all this?
The result is an extremely low accuracy of fire, the permanent extension of large territories with the presence of unexploded submunitions, which represent a danger to the civilian population in the long term (since the M42 and M46 submunitions have no self-destruct), and further escalation of the conflict. Without a deterrent factor, Russia could start using a wider range of cluster munitions, causing more casualties among the Ukrainian armed forces.
Great Britain agrees
The former prime minister of the country who signed the Convention on the Prohibition of Cluster Munitions, Boris Johnson, commented positively on the decision: “Joe Biden made a difficult but courageous decision to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine. He’s right. This is a terrible weapon. But Putin has been using them for more than a year in his program of wanton destruction of a completely innocent people. The faster we help the Ukrainians win, the more lives we will save. And never forget: it is the Ukrainians who will use these weapons on their own soil and for their own protection.”
Does this reasoning seem coherent to you? Not me….
The Cluster Munitions Treaty (2008), parties and signatories:
If the Russians don’t want Ukraine to use cluster munitions in Donbass, Donetsk and Luhansk, then Russia should escalate the conflict and advance to the front line.
This is easier said than done. This strategy is not possible because the truth is that attacking well-fortified defensive positions has a high cost, as we have seen by now. Russia cannot work miracles.
Conversely, many argue that there is no urgency for Russia to take territory, but rather this conflict is about gradual attrition.
Clearly, going slow comes at a cost: it means the terrain you eventually take will be saturated with cluster munitions.
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