CO2 capture, gradual exit or end of fossil fuels? Understand the focus of tensions at COP28

2023-12-07 12:25:03

With a Climate Conference chaired by the CEO of a major Arab oil company, hopes were low that COP28 could bring progress on the reduction of fossil fuels. But the debate about the gradual reduction or even the end of fossil fuels has accelerated in recent days, with the preliminary inclusion of the topic in the Global Assessment prepared by the 196 countries participating in the event.

Lucia Müzellsent special from RFI Brazil a Dubai

An observer of the negotiations, Rosana Santos, executive director of the think tank E+ Transição Energética, says that she “almost fell off her chair” when the UN secretary-general, António Guterres, urged participants to aim for the “phase out” of oil, the gas and, mainly, coal, whose production and consumption are most responsible for the warming of the planet.

“Phase out means that you gradually stop using fossil fuels, whatever, and the energy matrix in 2050 does not have any type of fossil. Phase down says that we would reduce the use a little, but that fossils would still be present in the matrix in 2050 and we would use carbon capture technologies so that we reach net zero, or net zero emissions”, he explains.

Until the end of the conference, on the 12th, there is no guarantee that the mention of the topic will be maintained in the document – ​​countries such as Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, promise not to give in in the negotiations and say they will not even accept the reduction of fossil fuels. The United States, Australia and Japan are other historical blockers on this delicate issue.

“It’s really complex, because the champions in renewable energy are not necessarily the champions in fossil fuels. In the rankings of wind and solar, these two main renewable sources, we have China and the United States in first and second. But neither of them are a champion in terms of phase out or phase down”, highlights Ricardo Baitelo, project manager at the Institute of Energy and Environment (Iema), who also follows the debates in Dubai.

Few examples in the world

The two experts cite Germany as the greatest example in the energy transition to a fossil-free economy and the push for the rest of the world to do the same. However, they highlight that in times of crisis, such as those generated by wars, even the most advanced countries on the issue retreat and reactivate coal plants, which emit 39% of energy-related greenhouse gases in the world, according to the Agency International sector (AIE). Oil comes next, with 30%.

“The IPCC assessment reports say that by 2023, emissions have to fall by half and by 2050 they have to be reduced completely. And the longer it takes us to get to this point, the greater the effort will be to be able to reverse it”, highlights Baitelo. “But we still can’t get out of the need to change the pattern of this curve. If we were to make an analogy, the car is accelerating, so we need to take our foot off the accelerator so the car can fully park.”

Europe’s largest coal-fired power plant is Belchatow Power Station in Poland. (11/22/2023) REUTERS – KACPER PEMPEL

In the hope that there is still an alternative before abandoning these polluting but cheap energy sources, many countries are betting on the advancement of atmospheric Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) technologies, another important topic at this COP28. Rosana Santos explains that these techniques, in addition to not yet being fully developed, will also require a constant decline in CO2 emissions to be, in fact, effective in the future in limiting global warming.

“The problem is that this CCS technology depends on other technologies that are not yet well developed [armazenamento geológico do CO2, no subsolo da Terra], or they are nature-based solutions where we have no certainty that this carbon will actually remain in the trees that grow. For example, a large forest fire can ruin everything”, says Rosana Santos, referring to the potential for CO2 absorption due to increased forest cover. “If it goes wrong and we have counted on it, the amount of carbon could be much higher in 2050,” she warns.

Brazil on the fence

With an eye on the progress of COP30, which will be held in Belém in 2025, the Brazilian delegation has remained cautious in the negotiations. Although Brasília is not pushing ambitious decisions, it states that if an international consensus is reached, including on the end of fossil fuels (phase out), Brazil will not oppose it. On Tuesday, at a press conference, the topic was addressed by the chief negotiator at COP28, diplomat André Corrêa do Lago.

“The international debate is not yet structured in relation to options for fossil fuels. People talk about consumption, slaughter, several different solutions and proposals in this context”, he said. “And about Brazil, I believe that Brazil is a country that has many options, fortunately. Brazilian society, in a democratic way, and in a very informed way, will have to have an important debate to see how we are going to deal with this issue, internally”, he pointed out.

Brazil’s chief negotiator at COP28, diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, held a press conference at the event last Tuesday (5) © Screenshot/ UNFCCC

Brazil has been pressured by NGOs present at the conference due to contradictions in relation to its future plans to increase oil exploration, but also due to the recently approved regulatory framework for offshore wind farms, by the Chamber. The text regulates the operation of wind farms at sea, but included the extension of subsidies for coal-fired thermal plants, potentially until 2050.

“It’s quite ironic that Brazil came to the COP with a contrary domestic signal. What we already had on the horizon was Brazil holding an auction that, historically, will offer the highest numbers of oil and gas, and that’s just one day after the COP ends”, said Baitelo, referring to the record offer of more than 600 oil exploration fields spread across Brazil, by the National Petroleum Agency (ANP). The auction will be held on December 13th.

“That was bad enough, and two new facts came along: the issue of Brazil being part of OPEC+, which seems quite counterproductive to be announced right at the time of the COP, and the other is from Congress, which is less controlled by the government, and which not only does not revert the tortoises from two years ago, for gas thermal plants, but also includes new tortoises for coal thermal plants”, criticizes the Iema project manager.

For Rosana Santos, Brazil “has everything to make the coal phase out viable”, with only 2% of the matrix anchored in this fossil and with the potential to become one of the largest exporters of decarbonized products.

“But we cannot threaten the asset we have. There is, within our Congress and perhaps within the pressures of our society, a set of decision makers who do not understand this and end up pushing measures that could threaten our position”, warned the executive director of think E+ Energy Transition.

After rest, COP28 will enter the ministerial segment

The eighth day of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change, this Thursday (7), marks a break in negotiations, with a full day of rest for participants. The day before, the executive secretary of the UN body that coordinates climate negotiations (UNFCCC), Simon Steil, and then the president of the COP, Sultan Al Jaber, tried to speed up the pace of the talks. Al Jaber called on countries to “leave their comfort zone” to reach an “ambitious” agreement, including on the controversial issue of the future of fossils.

This Friday (8), he must present a first draft of the final agreement. The COP will resume at ministerial level, which means that ministers, in general, of the Environment, will take over the leadership of delegations for the final, and most difficult, leg of the negotiations. For Brazil, it will be Minister Marina Silva – who, after accompanying President Lula to Germany, returned to the United Arab Emirates.