2023-04-25 00:12:45
Cocoa prices reach their highest since 2016. And the rise could continue, even if there is no shortage of beans on the market
Since September, the trend has been the same on the cocoa market, prices have risen to such an extent that they have returned to their 2016 level. Behind this rise, there is first of all the situation of the world’s leading producer. As often, Côte d’Ivoire influences cocoa prices.
The arrivals of beans in the export ports show a main harvest, which was a little weaker than expected. Between October 1 and October 31 March, according to the latest figures from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), Ivorian ports received around 90,000 tonnes less beans than last year. Exports also logically followed the same trend and are down.
An increase in producer prices tomorrow?
This news from Côte d’Ivoire is largely offset by the good performance of Ghana, the world’s second largest producer. The reduction in supply from these two countries is therefore ultimately very slight. The market remains well supplied. ” Above all, we must not give the impression that we are going to run out of cocoa “, insists an analyst.
Prices are still on the rise, as if the market only retained the Ivorian figures. Perhaps fueling this trend is the uncertainty surrounding the small Ivorian harvest that has just begun.
Another explanation put forward by an expert in the sector: the rumor of an increase in prices paid to producers in Côte d’Ivoire next fall. The assumption of this scenario encourages multinationals to buy more, to save money, a behavior that reinforces the upward trend.
Prices fueled by the new European regulations
According to one of our interlocutors, the market is also anticipating the difficulties that exporters will have in finding cocoa compatible with the new European regulations, which prohibit the import of cocoa from deforested land after December 2020.
This concern about the supply of certified cocoa no doubt explains the rise in the price of cocoa contracts already taken out for delivery in 2024.
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