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For several years, the figures for coffee production in Brazil have not reflected reality. This is what the world’s leading producer and leading exporter of coffee has just recognized. A discrepancy with reality which complicates the visibility of buyers on the market.
The reliability of coffee production statistics in Brazil has been questioned for years by the coffee industry, so the confessions of the national supply company (Conab) are not a surprise, confides a buyer. Concretely since 2017, according to the Reuters agency which compiled the Brazilian data, the production displayed by the public statistics agency is out of step with the export data – provided by Cecafé the council of Brazilian coffee exporters – and the data on local consumption – provided by the manufacturers grouped within the Abic.
The unknown of stocks
Every year, the difference is several million bags, sometimes negative, sometimes positive. It’s hard to say if the answer lies in unaccounted inventory. Conab has stopped publishing them. As in many countries, the number of storage warehouses is such that it makes listing them complicated. Conab admits in any case having difficulties in producing reliable estimates and says it is reviewing its methodology to better estimate coffee harvests, in particular through the recruitment of people and the use of satellite data.
Traders, importers and market analysts have become accustomed to dealing with Brazilian statistics that are often lower than those of other private or public structures that publish figures.
The big gap between public and private statistics
For the 2022/2023 campaign, for example, the estimate of coffee production ranges from 50 million bags according to figures from the Brazilian agency to around 64 million according to the American Department of Agriculture, and Rabobank. ” The difference is huge, especially in a market that does not accept a deficit at the moment “, explains our interlocutor.
If the production figures are not everything, they give a minima a price trend. If Brazil produces 58 million bags tomorrow, “ we know that there will not be enough coffee and prices will be pushed up, if production is around 64 million bags, prices may relax sums up our importer.
In countries other than Brazil, estimation discrepancies are better managed, but the volume of Brazilian production means that these discrepancies are greater and they have more impact on the market.