If you’ve read these Friday previews, by now you know my stance: The weeks with the marquee, eight-digit-viewership games — Bama-Georgia, Oregon-Ohio State, Georgia-Texas — are great. But the grab-bag weeks, where you don’t know ahead of time what the main story will be and there are countless games and storylines to track, are even better.
Welcome to one hell of a Week 9 grab bag. To be sure, we’ve got big games: LSU and Texas A&M, for instance, will play for the label of Surprise SEC Co-Favorite, and there are five ranked-versus-ranked games in all. But the subplots are legion. No. 3 Penn State has to visit maybe the hottest team in the Big Ten. Two of this season’s early darlings — Indiana and Navy — step into the spotlight. Boise State and UNLV meet in the biggest Group of 5 head-to-head game of the year. Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt welcome another top-five team to Nashville; they couldn’t do it again, could they?
Throw in another week of tight Big 12 matchups, diminished-but-salty rivalry games like Miami-Florida State and Michigan-Michigan State and the biggest smaller-school weekend to date, and you’ve got yourself one hell of a weekend. Here’s everything you need to follow. (All times are Eastern. Lines from ESPN BET.)
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A trio of unexpectedly important SEC games
After 0-1 starts, LSU and Texas A&M have produced matching six-game winning streaks. According to SP+ projections they’re the No. 2 (LSU) and No. 4 (A&M) most likely teams to win the SEC. The Tigers travel to College Station for one of three games that seem quite a bit more important than they might have a few weeks ago.
No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
This is the 53rd all-time meeting between LSU and A&M but only the third in which both teams were in the top 15. (The other two: the 1986 and 1987 season openers.) In terms of combined stakes, then, this is the biggest Tigers-Aggies game ever.
LSU has become much more well-rounded in recent weeks. The offense has been mostly strong, and Garrett Nussmeier is 10th in Total QBR. But after getting battered around over the first few games, coordinator Blake Baker’s defense has produced a 21.2% havoc rate* (10th nationally), a 48.8% pressure rate on dropbacks (second) and a 25.5% stuff rate on rushes (14th) over the last four games. Havoc is why you hire Baker in the first place, and havoc is what he’s increasingly delivering.
(* Havoc rate: total tackles for loss, passes defended and forced fumbles divided by total plays.)
A&M’s offense is anti-havoc. Running back Le’Veon Moss almost never loses ground, and the Aggies are rarely behind schedule. Since quarterback Conner Weigman’s return from injury, A&M has scored 41 and 34 points. At its best, A&M’s offense is too physical for opponents, and LSU’s defense is too fast. We’ll see which one matters more.
We’ll also see how well A&M’s pass defense can frustrate Nussmeier. In LSU’s biggest win, against Ole Miss, Nussmeier completed only 43% of his passes but at 15.3 yards per completion with no sacks or interceptions. A&M ranks 10th in completion rate allowed and boasts one of the best pass rushers in the country in Nic Scourton.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 0.4 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.0
No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
Spare a thought for Alabama fans. They have to root for a team that has, gasp, already lost two games! Their odds of winning out and still reaching the CFP are solid, but the Crimson Tide hadn’t lost two games in the same calendar month since November 2007.
They couldn’t lose a third October game, right? Missouri has repeatedly proved its close-game resilience this season, winning three straight super-tight home games — the last of which will forever be known as the Brady Cook Game — and they’re 17-3 since the start of 2023. That’s rarefied air in Columbia. But they’ve played one good team on the road (Texas A&M) and got manhandled, and now four offensive starters are either questionable (LG Cayden Green, TE Brett Norfleet) or doubtful (Cook, RB Nate Noel). The Tigers’ defense was outstanding against Auburn, allowing just 4.5 yards per play, but winning in Tuscaloosa with either a severely limited Cook or backup QB Drew Pyne (yes, the former Notre Dame starter) seems like a tall ask.
If Mizzou were to get off to a fast start, however, things could get awkward at Bryant-Denny. Alabama’s own weaknesses — too many penalties, poor disruption up front, a few too many big pass plays allowed — have made the Tide vulnerable for four straight games, and the home crowd could turn awfully quickly if things don’t break well early.
Current line: Bama -16.5 (up from -14 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.8
No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt (4:15 p.m., SECN)
I would also advise Texas to get off to a fast start. The Longhorns’ Week 9 opponent isn’t amazing — Vanderbilt lost to Georgia State in Week 3 and ranks just 70th in defensive SP+, after all — but it is the most battle-tested team of 2024.
The above chart shows how many of a team’s plays have either increased or decreased its win probability by more than 10%, per FPI. Teams have averaged 19.6 such plays this season; Vanderbilt is at 45 — 25 good, 20 bad. Vandy games are just exhausting.
Diego Pavia and the Commodores lost to GSU and barely shifted out of second gear against Ball State last week, but against all four SP+ top-40 opponents they’ve faced, they’ve overachieved against projections by at least three touchdowns. The Big Game ‘Dores are playing only top-30 opponents from here on out. Look out, world.
On paper, Texas should have things under control. Vandy does only one thing particularly well — pass — and the Longhorns rank first in both passing success rate allowed and yards per dropback. Star safety Andrew Mukuba is listed as doubtful this week, but they should still limit Pavia’s effectiveness in that regard, forcing either him to scramble nonstop for 60 minutes or the iffy Vandy defense to make far more stops than it’s used to making.
Of course, Bama had everything under control on paper too. The Legend of Diego Pavia has a chance to grow further early Saturday evening.
Current line: Texas -18.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 19.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 20.2
Potential narrative shifts in the Big Ten?
From an odds perspective, we’ve got a four-team Big Ten race with three favorites (Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State) and a delightful dark horse (Indiana). But Week 9 offers Illinois a chance to charge into the picture and provides potential sinkholes for both the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers.
No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Two years ago, powered by a dynamite pass defense, Bret Bielema’s Illinois began the season 7-1 by overpowering a series of offensively limited Big Ten opponents, but slid to 8-5 when its own offense couldn’t hold up its end of the bargain. This season, the Illini are far more balanced: 30th in points per drive on offense, 36th on defense. In the last two weeks, they’ve won games by scores of 50-49 and 21-7. They’ve already played four of the six SP+ top-50 opponents on their schedule, and they’re 6-1. They haven’t enjoyed a nine-win season in 17 years, but SP+ currently gives them exactly a 50% chance of going 9-3 or better.
Illinois frustrated Penn State in Week 5 before falling 21-7, but now comes another marquee upset opportunity. And if the Illini knock off an increasingly impressive Oregon team, they would insert themselves into the CFP conversation. That’s probably easier said than done. With the way the Ducks have played of late, it appears the upset window closed in mid-September. Dillon Gabriel leads the nation with a 77.0% completion percentage, alternating between possession man Tez Johnson and big-play threats Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden and, when healthy, tight end Terrance Ferguson. (Ferguson missed the Purdue game after an appendectomy.) The defense is only decent against the run but swarms quarterbacks and figured out how to make enough stops to beat Ohio State despite missing star end Jordan Burch.
Illinois is well-rounded enough to make Oregon work, but it would be a surprise if the Ducks dropped the ball at this point.
Current line: Oregon -21.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 20.4 | FPI projection: Oregon by 21.2
Washington at No. 13 Indiana (noon, BTN)
Indiana’s 56-7 win over Nebraska last week genuinely might have been one of the best performances in school history. The Hoosiers made a major statement against the best team they had faced to date, and now comes a new opportunity with new obstacles. “College GameDay” is in Bloomington for the first time ever. And quarterback Kurtis Rourke will be in street clothes. The No. 2 quarterback in the country, per Total QBR, suffered a thumb injury that will keep him out for a bit, and Tayven Jackson, he of five career starts (and a small-sample stat line almost equal to Rourke’s) takes over.
Washington’s defense has been excellent against the pass, so Jackson will face some challenges. But IU’s defense will as well: The Hoosiers have yet to face a top-60 offense, per SP+, but Washington is 44th and would quickly rank a lot higher if it solves its catastrophic red zone issues. The Huskies are 19th overall in success rate but 114th in red zone touchdown rate; that combination of rankings feels like an impossible contradiction. Washington is glitchy but talented enough to test the Hoosiers, but IU passed its last test with flying colors.
Current line: Indiana -6.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 10.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 14.9
No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Three weeks ago, Wisconsin was 2-2 and 66th in SP+. Now the Badgers are 5-2 and 20th, having beaten Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern by a combined 117-16. Quarterback Braedyn Locke took over for an injured Tyler Van Dyke and is actually making some downfield passes (and throwing some interceptions). Running back Tawee Walker, meanwhile, took over for Chez Mellusi and is averaging 139 yards per game at 6.3 per carry in this stretch, while the Badgers defense has treated three bad offenses like high school offenses, allowing just 0.4 points per possession and 4.1 yards per play.
Penn State has proven to be a mostly weakness-free team: In points per drive, they’re 11th on offense and 12th on defense, and in success rate, they’re sixth on both O and D. The Nittany Lions showed major resilience in coming back to win at USC two weeks ago, but they’ve also underachieved against SP+ projections for four of the last five games. This is clearly a good team, and quarterback Drew Allar has come a long way in a short amount of time. But now’s the time to prove that they’re “Big Ten Contender” good against maybe the conference’s hottest team.
Current line: PSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 10.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 7.7
Elimination(ish) games in the Group of 5
After a number of early-season plot twists, the current top five Group of 5 teams in terms of playoff odds, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, are Boise State (46.0%), Army (24.5%), UNLV (18.2%), Tulane (8.7%) and Navy (8.3%). BSU has to face the No. 3 team on that list on the road Friday night, while the No. 5 team, Navy, gets a shot at a huge résumé-building upset.
No. 17 Boise State at UNLV (Friday, 10:30 p.m., CBSSN)
In the five seasons prior to Barry Odom’s hire as head coach in 2023, UNLV won 15 total games. The Rebels are one win from matching that total in a year and a half with Odom.
On Friday night UNLV will get the first of perhaps two 2024 opportunities to do something it hasn’t done since 1976: Beat Boise State. The Rebels have lost their last seven meetings with the Broncos, including a blowout loss in last year’s Mountain West championship, a game in which BSU’s Ashton Jeanty rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown. That would be a below-average performance in 2024. Jeanty has made himself a Heisman front-runner by averaging 208.0 yards per game and 9.9 yards per carry. UNLV’s defense showed significant improvement early in the season, but has begun to spring leaks over the last three games.
If the Rebels can’t rein in Jeanty, it’s possible that nothing else matters. But if they can, then one should note that UNLV’s offense has only gotten better since replacing Matthew Sluka with Hajj-Malik Williams at QB and that Boise State ranks just 74th in defensive SP+.
Current line: BSU -3.5 (up from -2.5) | SP+ projection: BSU by 1.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 4.5
No. 12 Notre Dame at No. 24 Navy (noon, ABC/ESPN+)
The Notre Dame-Navy rivalry is a reasonably common type in college football, in which one storied program dominates but we remember the other program’s wins a lot more. I remember many plays from the Midshipmen’s 46-44 win in 2007, for example, or from when they played keep-away for the last 7:28 of a classic 28-27 win in 2016. But 2016 was the last time Navy beat the Irish, and only one of the last five games was decided by less than 22 points.
Of course, Notre Dame has primarily dominated the series of late because Navy has been really bad. That’s clearly not the case in 2024. The Midshipmen are 6-0, quarterback Blake Horvath is third nationally in Total QBR, and the next team that contains Navy’s redesigned, motion-heavy option offense will be the first. The Fighting Irish have averaged 41 points per game, with Riley Leonard ranking 12th in Total QBR and backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price running wild, since their shocking 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. But Notre Dame’s defense has to take the ball from Navy before its own offensive prowess can matter.
Current line: Irish -13.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 20.9
Latest round of tight Big 12 games with title stakes
Unbeatens Iowa State and BYU both earned tight, comeback wins last week and stayed on top of the Big 12 pile because of it. There are seven Big 12 games on the docket this week, and for six of them the spread is within one touchdown. BYU is a road underdog. We expected a mess in this conference race, and there’s still plenty of time for it to come to fruition.
No. 11 BYU at UCF (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Now that was the UCF I expected to see more of this year. With Jacurri Brown taking over at quarterback, the Knights did almost nothing with the pass against unbeaten Iowa State, but RJ Harvey and Brown combined for 350 rushing yards, and the defense was fast and aggressive, recording three sacks and two picks with huge returns.
The Knights couldn’t close the deal, watching a 14-point second-half lead turn into a 3-point defeat, their fourth straight. But they were dangerous, and now they get another swing at a conference leader. In fact, the betting line has lurched in UCF’s direction. BYU’s pass defense is one of the nation’s best, but the Cougars’ wobbly run defense could struggle, and things could come down to whether BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff can either avoid disasters better than Iowa State’s Rocco Becht did or produce the same level of late/clutch play.
Current line: UCF -2.5 (flipped from BYU -1) | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.2 | FPI projection: UCF by 1.6
Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Since a blowout loss at BYU to open Big 12 play, K-State has probably been the conference’s best team, sandwiching a tough road win over Colorado with blowouts of Oklahoma State and West Virginia. This is the only conference game with a spread of greater than one TD, but Kansas might at least have an opportunity to muck things up. After five straight losses by only 28 combined points, the Jayhawks took out some frustration on Houston in a 42-14 win; their run game remains excellent, and Jalon Daniels finally had an excellent passing day against the Cougars.
If that was a sign of a KU turnaround, this game could be fantastic. If it wasn’t, K-State’s title push will continue.
Current line: K-State -10 | SP+ projection: K-State by 11.6 | FPI projection: K-State by 10.0
Cincinnati at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
Two weeks into 2024, Colorado and Cincinnati were each 1-1 and ranked 79th and 68th in SP+, respectively. Six weeks later, they’re both 5-2 and ranked 40th and 41st. Colorado is learning that boring can be good: Veterans of close, dramatic games, the Buffaloes’ last two wins were by a combined 82-28. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is learning to love a good slog. After scoring at least 28 points in three of its first five games but allowing at least 28 in both losses, the Bearcats have won their last two games by scores of 19-13 and 24-14.
The winner of this game will be 4-1 in Big 12 play and very much alive in the conference title race. Cincy still has to play at Iowa State and Kansas State, but Colorado’s remaining slate is awfully navigable, and star Travis Hunter seems to be getting healthier. Translation: We can’t rule out “Colorado: playoff team?” just yet.
Current line: Colorado -5.5 (up from -3.5) | SP+ projection: Colorado by 2.7 | FPI projection: Colorado by 6.9
Week 9 chaos superfecta
Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence — I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. After a run of great results, returns are diminishing. Sigh. Last week’s set of misses left us 5-for-8 for the season, which I guess is what you would expect from such an exercise.
We charge on! I haven’t had a ton of luck with Big Ten-themed chaos, but I do see potential from this foursome: SP+ says there is only a 44% chance that the Big Ten’s favorites, Ohio State (92% against Nebraska), Oregon (90% against Illinois), Indiana (73% against Washington) and Penn State (73% against Wisconsin) all win. Let’s see some upsets!
Week 9 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Rutgers at USC (11 p.m., Fox). We’ve had multiple West Coast Big Ten teams playing games at 9 a.m. PT on a Saturday, and now we get Rutgers traveling 2,800 miles to play a game at 11 p.m. ET on a Friday night. It doesn’t have to be this way. This is a vital game for both teams, as Rutgers has fallen from 4-0 to 4-3, and USC has slipped from 3-1 to 3-4. Someone’s season is going to go from bad to worse. In the middle of the night.
Current line: USC -13.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 9.8 | FPI projection: USC by 19.2
Early Saturday
Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State (noon, Fox). Nebraska started 3-0, then suffered a frustrating defensive collapse in a 31-24 loss to Illinois. After a brief rebound, the Huskers no-showed in a blowout loss to Indiana. This is still likely to be their first bowl season since 2016, but the vibes will sour further if Ohio State lays the hammer down in Columbus. The Buckeyes got a week off after their frustrating loss to Oregon, and it would be surprising if they didn’t play their A-game.
Current line: Buckeyes -25.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 22.0 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.6
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (noon, ACCN). Virginia Tech resurrected its season with a loss. The Hokies played really well in a heartbreaking 38-34 defeat to Miami and responded by beating Stanford and Boston College handily. Per SP+, they still have a 2.9% chance of winning the ACC! But first, take advantage of Georgia Tech’s wobbliness and injury concerns — QB Haynes King is somewhere between day-to-day and doubtful — and bump this winning streak to three.
Current line: Hokies -10.5 (up from -9) | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.9 | FPI projection: Hokies by 5.2
Tulane at North Texas (noon, ESPN2). Tulane is unbeaten in the AAC, while 2-1 North Texas has lost only a track meet at Memphis. (And I mean track meet: At one point, UNT’s DT Sheffield scored twice on consecutive 75-yard gains.) The Green Wave have as much upside as anyone in the Group of 5 and, with two nonconference losses, have to hope they keep winning and the favorites in the CFP race don’t. Quarterback Darian Mensah has only gotten better since he nearly led the Wave to an upset of Kansas State in September.
Current line: Tulane -8 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 3.6 | FPI projection: Tulane by 12.0
Oklahoma at No. 18 Ole Miss (noon, ESPN). The last time OU played Ole Miss, in the 1999 Independence Bowl, the Sooners lost but won the national title the next year. They’ll probably lose this one too … and that’s probably where the parallels end.
Current line: Rebels -20 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 19.6 | FPI projection: Rebels by 17.9
Saturday afternoon
Northwestern at Iowa (3:30 p.m., BTN). Over the last two weeks, Northwestern has played its best (blowout win over Maryland) and worst (blowout loss to Wisconsin) games of the season. In blowing out Washington but giving up 32 points in a loss to Michigan State, so has Iowa. The numbers trust Hawkeyes running back Kaleb Johnson and the home team quite a bit more, but Johnson’s blockers are beginning to succumb to injury.
Current line: Iowa -13.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 14.5 | FPI projection: Iowa by 13.9
Oregon State at California (4 p.m., ESPN2). Hold on, teams from the Pacific Time Zone are allowed to play each other? Amazing! And it’s a pretty big game! OSU has fallen from 4-1 to 4-3 after two tight losses, and Cal, once 3-0, has lost four straight by a combined 9 points. With a win here, either team could enjoy a nice turnaround. That’s doubly true for Cal: The Golden Bears are projected favorites in their next four games.
Current line: Cal -10 (down from -11) | SP+ projection: Cal by 7.2 | FPI projection: Cal by 9.2
Texas Tech at TCU (2:30 p.m., Fox). Technically Texas Tech, with a 3-1 Big 12 record, still has a shot at the conference title game, but the Red Raiders crumbled in a 24-point home loss to Baylor last week, and they’re projected underdogs in the next four games. TCU, meanwhile, has lost a 66-42 game and won a 13-7 game this year. I have no idea what to expect here.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.0
Bowling Green at Toledo (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The MAC is delightfully wide open, with seven teams at either 3-0 or 2-1 in conference play and eight with at least a 5% title chance, per SP+. After last week’s win over Northern Illinois, Toledo is the clear favorite … for now. Bowling Green has beaten the Rockets as a pretty significant underdog twice in the last five years. These teams have two of the conference’s better defenses, but Toledo’s A-game is the best in the conference when it appears.
Current line: Toledo -2.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 6.7 | FPI projection: Toledo by 5.7
Saturday evening
Florida State at No. 6 Miami (7 p.m., ESPN). Since 1978, a team in this series has been favored by at least 7 points 18 times. The underdog has won just once (Miami in 2003). This isn’t a rivalry that tends to produce major surprises, and while Miami’s defense is extremely vulnerable to offensive competence at the moment, FSU’s offense has been 15 miles from competent.
Current line: Miami -21 | SP+ projection: Miami by 22.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 21.2
No. 22 SMU at Duke (8 p.m., ACCN). These two 6-1 teams have super-fun, turnover-hungry defenses. SMU actually scores points, however — Duke’s offense ranks 99th in points per drive and 116th in yards per play — which gives the Mustangs an edge on paper. Still, they’ve also suffered three turnovers in a game twice, including their lone loss of the season. That makes this one pretty interesting. Plus, the winner will still have dark horse ACC title hopes.
Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 5.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 10.3
Michigan State at Michigan (7:30 p.m., BTN). These teams have performed at similar levels, with matching 4-3 records against similarly difficult schedules. Michigan is a projected favorite because of everything that happened before 2024, but the Wolverines have underachieved against SP+ projections in every game — and they still don’t know who their QB should be — while MSU has overachieved in five of seven.
Current line: Michigan -4 (down from -5) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 13.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 6.5
Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama (5 p.m., ESPN+). In their first year at ULM, Bryant Vincent and defensive coordinator Earnest Hill have immediately crafted what is, per SP+, the Warhawks’ best FBS defense since 1979. They play pretty soft run defense but absolutely swarm against the pass. If they can limit the explosiveness of an excellent South Alabama run game, they’ll have a chance at an upset: The Jaguars are averaging 14.0 yards per successful rush in wins but 8.1 in losses.
Current line: USA -7 (down from -8.5) | SP+ projection: USA by 12.2 | FPI projection: USA by 10.2
San José State at Fresno State (8 p.m., truTV). Ken Niumatalolo’s first season as SJSU head coach has been solid — the Spartans are 5-2 and boast one of the nation’s most exciting players in receiver Nick Nash. But now things get serious: Fresno State is by far San José State’s oldest rival and has won 21 of the last 28 in the series. The Bulldogs rebounded from a two-game slide with a tight win over Nevada last week, and the winner of this one isn’t totally out of the MWC race.
Current line: Fresno -4.5 (down from -6) | SP+ projection: Fresno by 0.5 | FPI projection: Fresno by 3.6
Late Saturday
Washington State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Wazzu is an absolute delight. A loss to Boise State likely doomed any playoff hopes, but quarterback John Mateer is on pace for 3,500 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards, and per SP+ the Cougs have a 41% chance of winning out to get to 11-1. SDSU has eked out a pair of tight wins to keep bowl hopes alive, but you’re watching this one for Wazzu-centric entertainment even if it’s not a close game.
Current line: Wazzu -14.5 | SP+ projection: Wazzu by 17.0 | FPI projection: Wazzu by 14.0
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three enormous games you should track.
Division III: No. 19 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 8 Wisconsin-Platteville (2 p.m., local streaming). I just can’t get enough of the WIAC. Five of the conference’s eight teams remain ranked, and six are either 2-1 or 1-2 in conference play. Every week features at least one wild finish that alters the title race.
This one feels like Week 9’s most likely detonator. UW-Platteville beat back-to-back top-five teams before losing at UW-Oshkosh last week. Meanwhile, UW-Whitewater is still relatively close to its typical, dominant form and could make a run to the title despite an upset loss to UW-Stout.
SP+ projection: UWW by 1.6.
Division II: No. 3 Ferris State at No. 1 Grand Valley State (3 p.m., FloFootball). IT’S ANCHOR-BONE CLASSIC TIME. Ferris State and GVSU ceded control of Division II to Harding last season, but the defending champs slipped up against rival Ouachita Baptist last week, and Scott Wooster’s Grand Valley State Lakers, unbeaten despite an ambitious schedule, jumped to No. 1 in the rankings. Ferris State dropped its season opener at No. 6 Pittsburg State, but the Bulldogs have won their last six games by an average of 53-9. Seven of the last eight games in this series have been decided by one score.
SP+ projection: Ferris State by 0.6.
FCS: No. 4 South Dakota at No. 3 South Dakota State (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). SDSU saw its five-game winning streak over North Dakota State end with a 13-9 heartbreaker last week in Fargo. Now the Jackrabbits have to face another top-five rival. South Dakota has lost only to Wisconsin and has won its last five games by an average of 42-10. Linemen Mi’Quise Grace and Nick Gaes have combined for 14 TFLs, 10 sacks and 6 hurries this season. If South Dakota State responds to disappointment with anything less than its A-game, South Dakota is taking this one.
SP+ projection: SDSU by 2.4.