Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Mixed Belarusian-Russian groups entered Ukraine

by time news

Colonel Peter Chernik

The Ukrainian military steadfastly hold Bakhmut and inflict numerous losses on the Russians. What is the current situation at the front in Ukraine? What to expect from Lukashenka and Putin in the near future?

To this and other questions to the site Charter97.org answered Ukrainian military analyst, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petr Chernik.

– Bakhmut is an objectively strategically important point both for us and for the enemy. It has both political and psychological significance for the enemy. Putin has already given either the ninth or the tenth order to enter the administrative lines of the Donetsk region. They cannot complete this task. It was Bakhmut who became the bone in his throat.

– Why is Bakhmut strategically important from a military point of view?

– These are the keys for potential counter-offensive operations towards Severodonetsk and Lysichansk. Bakhmut is a convenient height for striking the Debaltsevo railway junction. From Bakhmut to Debaltsovo 42 kilometers.

The importance of fire control over Debaltseve is that HIMARS operate at a distance of 84 kilometers. At the moment, the war is 95% an artillery war. Trucks like KAMAZ or Ural do not deliver ammunition from Russia. We need a railroad. So, the Debaltseve junction is the very railway along which ammunition is imported in 60-ton wagons.

Indeed, it’s just that this is not advertised anywhere, as it should be, we are working in terms of strikes against this node. Bakhmut is precisely the point from where this operational control is carried out. This is first.

Secondly, if we really withdraw from Bakhmut, then the next line of defense becomes the next urban conglomeration. This is either Chasov Yar-Konstantinovka, or Kramatorsk-Slavyansk. We understand that this area will also be reduced to rubble. Therefore, we keep Bakhmut as long as we can.

By the way, Bakhmut is such a kind of Thermopylae 2.0. In history, there was such a battle in 480 BC, when King Leonidas stopped the colossal Asian invasion led by Xerxes. Something similar is now happening near Bakhmut.

A huge amount of Russian trained personnel is being ground there. First of all, this is the Wagner PMC, as well as a huge amount of equipment. Therefore, there is logic to keep him as long as Bakhmut is standing, there is a supply of ammunition, medicines, food, water, and so on.

– What will happen if the Ukrainian command nevertheless decides to leave Bakhmut?

– If we move away from Bakhmut, then there will be no strategic defeat. It will be painful and uncomfortable. As the great Napoleon I Bonaparte said, you can lose all battles except the last one. This is not the last battle.

Bonaparte himself won the brilliant battle of Borodino and burned Moscow, however, he lost the war. It is important for us to win the war.

At the moment, Bahumt is a kind of standing point, near which the last remnants of the quality forces of the Russian Federation are crushed to the maximum. Bakhmut will be kept exactly until the Ukrainian command comes to the conclusion that it is time to withdraw.

We remember that a huge armored package is on the way to us. The first few dozen Leopard 2 tanks have already entered. The first armored vehicles are already approaching the front line, and Bakhmut can become the starting point for further counteroffensive operations. I emphasize that this is analytics, and how it will be in reality is impossible to foresee.

War is a way of deceit. The enemy still has a huge human potential, which we cannot ignore.

– If we talk about the counter-offensive of Ukraine, then, in your opinion, what scenario is the most likely?

– I will express a personal, very specific point of view. The next counter-offensive operation will be without fail. When and under what circumstances should be left in the shade. Real serious operations require absolute silence.

Personally, as an analyst, I never go into predicting the specifics of offensive directions.

– Why?

The enemy parses every word. Literally two weeks ago, my analysis was dismantled on the site of Skabeeva (Russian TV presenter, propagandist – approx.) in the 60 Minutes program. They twisted everything there, distorted it, but they showed that they were watching us. And for me personally. Therefore, I will not allow myself to give the enemy another portion of analytical material.

All potential areas of counter-offensive are being considered, I have 100% confidence in our General Staff. They will make the best decision possible.

– If we talk about the role of the Lukashenka regime in this war, how likely is the scenario that after some time there will be a new attack on Kyiv from the territory of Belarus?

– As I understand it, Lukashenka is now desperately fighting for his life. Putin holds a sharp NKVD knife to his throat. The question is, will he cut that throat.

Let’s be honest, Belarus is in fact at war with Ukraine. Rocket attacks on my native Lvov were carried out from the territory of Belarus. Large groups at the beginning of a full-scale invasion, in February-March, entered the Chernobyl zone. They were mixed – Belarusian-Russian. It is a fact.

The question is whether Lukashenka will dare and whether Putin will put pressure on him for a second ground operation. But there is a nuance. At the beginning of the war, we were taken by surprise. It is true that we were not ready for such a large-scale war.

At the same time, the northern border has been transformed into such a specific Mannerheim line. Everything is mined and fortified. The north of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border is forests and swamps, and spring has already begun, which will be warm. Even if they decide, they will only be able to go by roads towards Kyiv or towards Western Ukraine. It’s totally suicidal.

We have learned to work on the roads. We are the second country in the world in terms of reserves of FGM-148 Javelin. Everything that appears there, we will kill like nuts. I emphasize like nuts.

At the moment, a ground grouping of 15 thousand is deployed in Belarus. These are three teams. If they go on the offensive, it will be painful and inconvenient for us, but it will not change the course of the war.

In order for us to really hurt, we need 40,000 personnel. These 40,000 require 825 tanks, 2,500 armored vehicles, up to 1,000 artillery pieces, and, most importantly, air cover.

Since April, Russian aviation has not entered our aviation space. We knock down almost everything. For example, we shoot down cruise missiles with an indicator of 70 to 90 percent. This is a very high figure. Our air defense is getting stronger not every month, but every week.

If the Belarusian-Russian groups decide to turn some regular aviation complexes into scrap metal, then we cannot refuse them this.

There is such a Roman thinker Mark Cicero. He has a very good expression – “The closer the collapse of the empire, the crazier its laws.” Can they take this crazy step – bury 15,000 people in the Ukrainian swamps of the north? They can. But this will not affect the course of the war.

It seems to me that Lukashenko is a little smarter than Putin. He is a bloody dictator in Belarus, but does not want to cross the final border. If the land phase fully passes again, then this will already be a “black line”.

I could be wrong, but, in my opinion, Putin is being cautious about cleaning up Lukashenka, because an alternative figure is needed. The Belarusian people in 2020 showed that they are a nation. There was a surge, where is the guarantee that when Lukashenka is replaced, the surge will not happen again, and this will already be a very serious defeat for Putin. This is a knot that has not yet been untied either in plus or minus, but sooner or later it will be untied.

The fate and freedom of Belarus is tightly connected with the victory of Ukraine in the war. It’s only a matter of time.

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