For almost two weeks there has been a war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. And the protests of Russians against the so-called Russian “special operation” last the same amount of time. During this time, according to OVD-info, more than 13.5 thousand Russians were detained. They are punished with fines, beaten in police stations, but people continue to go to rallies. Whether they have a chance to overcome Russian militarism and stop the aggression depends on several factors.
For the last 8 years, I have closely observed the Russian anti-war movement. More precisely, how the authorities consistently cracked down on any communities of Russians who might one day oppose the war. Boris Nemtsov was killed, who advocated that the anti-war theme be the main one for the Russian opposition. Jehovah’s Witnesses, a religious group banned in the USSR for refusing to take up arms, were banned. Committees of soldiers’ mothers were pasted over with labels of “foreign agents”. They were followed by feminist organizations that could also become a rallying point for pacifists.
The final truth unites
By 2022, Russia has come up without a single organization and a freely operating community that could become the structural basis for a large anti-war movement. The last victim was the political opposition, as well as the media. Nevertheless, tens of thousands of Russians have found the strength and courage to organize themselves and join mass protests without leaders, through horizontal ties.
Ivan Preobrazhensky
I think they were driven by a sense of the “ultimate truth.” The need to say – no matter what it costs them – what they think of Vladimir Putin’s criminal order to send troops into Ukraine. They were not stopped even by the new repressive measures of the government. For example, a new law on criminal liability for fakes about the Russian army, which the State Duma, obedient to the Kremlin, literally pushed through in a couple of days. But he introduces a new article into the Criminal Code (207.3 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation), according to which those responsible for disseminating “inaccurate information about the actions of the armed forces of Russia” face from three to 15 years in prison.
But even this could not break the desire of many Russians to tell the truth about the aggressive war unleashed by the authorities of their country. And it has been seen all over the world. In 1968, after the occupation of Czechoslovakia, only eight people came to Red Square – but even this was enough in a totalitarian society to understand that support for the invasion was not unanimous. Now the country has seriously changed.
The authorities see, but are not very afraid yet
The authorities see the readiness of citizens to fight for the truth, but they are not very afraid of this. They were detained, especially at Sunday demonstrations and pickets, very harshly. There is evidence of fairly massive beatings of detainees by the police. They spared neither children nor the blockade. People like, for example, the philosopher Grigory Yudin from the police departments ended up in the hospital. At least one citizen of Belarus was deported to her homeland, where she is guaranteed to face a prison term.
But courts obedient to the Kremlin are still sentencing under new criminal articles. Clearly there is a command from the authorities to limit themselves to administrative penalties. On average, courts massively impose fines – all for the same fakes. Basically – 30 thousand rubles for an anti-war speech. Those who called for protests on their pages in social networks, and whom the authorities qualified as organizers, are given heavy fines – 50-60 thousand rubles. For the Russian provinces – a lot of money, and even for the capital – a lot.
But then new political prisoners will definitely appear. The experience of 2021 and the protests in support of Alexei Navalny suggests that the case will not be limited to administrative fines and arrests for 15 or 30 days (this is how much the well-known activist Yulia Galyamina received).
The authorities will try to detain everyone they consider the organizers again, even if they do not go anywhere else in person. And then isolate them from society, soldering them not only conditional, but also real terms for anti-war protests. After that, I’m afraid the protest activity will decline. Moreover, many of those who protested in the early days have already left the country and do not plan to return there under Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin will “dry” the protest
Judging by the behavior of the authorities, they are more optimistic about the mood of Russians than even the Russian opposition. The Kremlin appears to have been wary of noticeably larger protests. No wonder the Russians began to be frightened by strange leaks about the possibility of introducing, for example, martial law. And the majority of insufficiently loyal media outlets were not just blocked in Russia, but even liquidated, like the Ekho Moskvy radio station.
Now, traditionally, the authorities will “dry” the protest, gradually withdrawing from public circulation the most active citizens, from whom new opposition leaders could grow. Almost all elements of martial law were also introduced, including partial nationalization and censorship, but the decree itself did not have to be signed. It is good as a mysterious threat, and if signed, it could, on the contrary, expand the protest base, at the expense of those who still hope that they will serve time in “dashing years.”
It seems that the plans of the Russian government are being implemented successfully so far. Unless the protest grows wider and hundreds of thousands of Russians affected by the country’s isolation join Putin’s political opponents. But this is unlikely to happen before next year.
Author: Ivan Preobrazhensky, candidate of political sciences, expert on Central and Eastern Europe, columnist for a number of media. Writer of a weekly column for DW. Ivan Preobrazhensky on Facebook: Ivan Preobrazhensky
The comment expresses the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the opinion of the Russian editors and Deutsche Welle in general.
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