The change has arrived. The opinion of German voters is unambiguous: the minimal compromises of the previous “grand coalition“ conservatives from the CDU / CSU and social democrats. Forward to the big challenges: climate protection, digitalization and the necessary modernization of Germany. This titanic work can only be mastered together with small parties. With all possible options for the future government coalition in Germany and “green“and Free Democrats have a significant say. Without them, nothing will work. And this is good. Perhaps now there will be a new liberal center in Germany.
Dear Green Bride
A clear increase in votes cast for “Soyuz-90 / “green”, in comparison with the previous elections, clearly demonstrates that voters are afraid of the consequences of climate change. With this result “green” will confidently enter into sounding negotiations on the formation of a ruling coalition. This party is the bride everyone wants and can make their dowry very expensive. However, Germany may have been less prepared for change than expected. “green“ led by their candidate for Chancellor Annalena Baerbock. Especially when these changes cost money. And this was also shown by the voting results.
The FDP’s voice has weight
Forming a new government would hardly be possible without the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Liberals see themselves as great opponents of prohibitions and can force “green“ temper some of your desires. Free Democrats rely on the laws of the market, rely on digitalization and lower bureaucratic barriers, and advocate climate protection without raising taxes. How this is supposed to work will be explained to them during the probing negotiations on the formation of the government.
It’s time for the CDU / CSU bloc to go into opposition
The election defeat of the bloc of parties from the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU / CSU) is unambiguous, although their loss of votes turned out to be less serious than most opinion polls predicted. Be that as it may – a strong minus in comparison with the previous elections to the Bundestag cannot be presented in the best light.
Manuela Casper-Claire
The bloc’s candidate for chancellor, Armin Laschet, has failed to convince voters, although he is quite successful in his role as prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia. The Christian Social Union, the CDU’s partner in Bavaria, also suffered a crushing defeat. Its result is undeniably the worst in the history of elections to the Bundestag since 1949. After 16 years in government, the time has come for the CDU / CSU bloc to go into opposition.
Jamaica Coalition
Nevertheless, the CDU / CSU will do everything possible to lead the new government, which would include the “green” and free democrats as junior partners. According to the traditional colors of the parties, such a coalition in Germany is called “Jamaica“… This is possible even if the conservative bloc takes second place in the final vote. The decisive factor is which parties manage to form a majority coalition. During the post-war history of Germany, a representative of the party that did not receive the majority of votes became the chancellor three times.
Merkel 2.0
This could pose a major challenge to SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who won the Social Democrats this election. Despite the fact that the gap between the CDU / CSU is extremely small, Scholz managed to make an unprecedented leap forward. Indeed, even at the beginning of the election campaign, social democrats trampled in polls at the level of 12 percent of the vote. It seemed that the party, once representing the interests of all groups of the population, was in complete collapse. Olaf Scholz managed to reverse this negative trend. The only thing that remained unclear was what he personally stood for, what was really important to him. He gives the impression of “Merkel 2.0”: predictable, sober-minded, not showing strong emotions. But, obviously, the voters liked this Scholz.
Traffic Light Coalition
Now Olaf Scholz must demonstrate what he is capable of. If Scholz wants to become the next chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, he needs to quickly begin probing negotiations on the formation of a government with “green“ and liberals. Its target is the red-yellow-green coalition, or “withtraffic light“… Forming it will not be easy, as he will have to make concessions to small parties, for example, on climate protection or tax policy. The CDU, which breathes down the back of its head, will try to do the same.
The result is not yet clear, but the Germans do not want the continuation of Angela Merkel’s policy. Compared to earlier times, the power and degree of influence among the large parties of the CDU and SPD has become significantly less. German politics is becoming motley. This is a chance to start solving the serious problems of the future – with care for the climate and the development of digital technologies.
By Manuela Casper-Claridge, Editor-in-Chief, Deutsche Welle
The commentary expresses the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the opinion of the Russian editorial staff and Deutsche Welle in general.
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