Commentary: Omissions of the rulers of Kazakhstan | Comments from DW Reviewers and Guest Contributors

It cannot be said that the unrest in Kazakhstan began out of nowhere. Over the past years, smaller-scale protests on various occasions have been held in the country every now and then. This suggests that the idea of a nation living in harmony, which they tried to create at the official level, does not correspond to reality. Meanwhile, none of the protest movements posed a serious danger to the rulers, who invariably suppressed any opposition movements in advance. When Kazakhstan celebrated the 30th anniversary of independence in December 2021, it seemed that the situation in the country was calm and stable.

FAZ columnist Reinhard Feser

However, the events of recent days dramatically confirm what has long been known: rulers who suppress criticism deprive themselves of the opportunity to correctly assess the mood of the people. Just as Alexander Lukashenko underestimated before the 2020 presidential elections how much society had changed in Belarus, the authoritarian regime of Kazakhstan did not understand how much discontent had accumulated in the country, which was just waiting for an excuse to splash out. At the same time, the leadership of Kazakhstan was not so cunning when it presented its state as a success story: in comparison with other countries of the region, things were not bad there.

And the fact that this may now change is the fault, first of all, of the Kazakh rulers. The violence during the protests reflects the missed opportunities to modernize the country and its corruption. The salvation of the regime through Russian intervention prolongs and deepens the problems of Kazakhstan. At the same time, it is changing the international situation as well. It is not yet clear how the escalation in Kazakhstan will affect the tense situation over Ukraine and Russia’s upcoming talks with the West. Will the Kremlin show restraint for some time, saving the forces necessary for an important sphere for the security of the Russian Federation? Or will he make the opposite conclusion that the time for decisive action has come?

By Reinhard Feser, columnist for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Without the right to reprint. © Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH, Frankfurt am Main.

Сайт газеты Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

The commentary expresses the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the opinion of the Russian editorial staff and Deutsche Welle in general.

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Mass protests rarely break out in authoritarian Kazakhstan. The current situation has become the biggest crisis for President Tokayev, who succeeded long-term head of state Nursultan Nazarbayev in 2019. Now 81-year-old Nazarbayev bears the honorary title of “leader of the nation” and is considered the de facto ruler in the country and the closest ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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Russia sent airborne units to Kazakhstan
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