Russian President Vladimir Putin can rejoice – the coming week can be safely called “the festival of Russia”. Several conferences and meetings will be held in Geneva, Brussels, Vienna and Brest at once with the sole purpose of keeping Putin in a good mood. And to keep him from entering regular Russian troops into Ukraine.
“Festival” week of Russia
The “festival” began back in December with two conversations between the presidents of the United States and Russia. This was followed by an extraordinary meeting of NATO foreign ministers in video format, at which the West agreed on its position. American President Biden promised to hold close consultations with the Europeans and kept his word.
Bernd Riegert
Further on Monday, January 10, everything will continue with direct “strategic negotiations” between the United States and Russia in Geneva. Then, on Wednesday, a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, a long-dormant advisory body, will take place in Brussels. In parallel, the chiefs of staff of the armies of the NATO states will meet to consider the issue of reinforcing troops in the Black Sea or on the eastern border of the alliance. And on Thursday, another meeting will take place within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), of which the United States and Russia are members.
The European Union also does not want to be left on the sidelines. Defense and foreign ministers of the EU countries will gather in Brest, France. There, from Wednesday to Friday, as at all other meetings this week, the main topic will be Russia’s demands for security guarantees and the possible reaction to the escalation over Putin’s actions towards Ukraine.
West without strong leverage over the Kremlin
The President of Russia managed to make the West turn around, as well as to make visible the differences in the camp of his opponents. With regard to Russia, there are clear differences within NATO and the EU, depending on the interests of the member countries. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell is also doing the EU a (Russian) disservice by complaining that he is not even asked when it comes to security in Europe and Ukraine.
To this day, the Europeans cannot agree on what kind of severe sanctions they want to threaten Russia with. The only thing that the EU has decided so far is that there should be a “price” for possible aggressive actions on the part of Moscow. It is clear that the EU is hesitant to approach the sector that will really harm Russia, namely the export of its energy resources. Because without gas and oil from Russia, many European countries, including Germany, would have faced significant difficulties.
The Russian president should not expect serious decisions during the “festival” week. All the same warnings will be issued that have been sounding for several weeks since Russia concentrated its troops on the border with Ukraine. Neither the United States nor other NATO countries will use their own military forces to defend Ukraine.
However, it is also ruled out that NATO will agree with Moscow’s demand to abandon the theoretically possible expansion of the alliance by accepting Ukraine or Georgia into it. Russian blackmail will not work, and Putin, of course, knows this too. However, President Biden has already assured the Kremlin ruler that NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine is not on the agenda for the foreseeable future. After all, such uncertainty has existed since the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest.
Continue to talk to Russia
The West will continue to try in some way, maneuvering, to move forward and rely on diplomacy, without provoking military action from Russia. And Vladimir Putin will keep the West in good shape through targeted provocations. He will fuel conflicts in and around Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Armenia to prevent these countries from taking further steps towards the West. From a military point of view, the West, which has not even been able to organize its own withdrawal from Afghanistan, appears to Putin to be extremely indecisive.
At the moment, the master of the Kremlin will not expand military operations against Ukraine, which began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014. After all, an unpredictable president, in principle, has what he is striving for. The United States, NATO and the EU will want to continue negotiations with Moscow and will build their policy based on the fact that Putin, due to internal political reasons, cannot afford a full-scale war and is primarily concerned with strengthening his influence in Kazakhstan. So this will not be the last “festival” week of the Kremlin. But it is valuable in itself: if you talk to each other, then you do not shoot at each other.
By Bernd Riegert, DW Columnist
The commentary expresses the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the opinion of the Russian editorial staff and Deutsche Welle in general.
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