When you read the statements released by Biden and Putin after the video summit, one gets the impression that there is no sign of rapprochement between them. For two hours, both presidents presented to each other their different views on the problem of Ukraine and NATO’s eastward expansion. At the same time, Biden demonstrated his determination to take tough measures in relation to Moscow.
At this stage of the conflict, this is an important signal that will help Putin avoid false expectations. Unlike past crises, which he not only provoked, but also used for his own purposes, this time he should not count on the inaction of the West. There is also no surprise effect, which played into the hands of Putin in the conflicts with Georgia and Ukraine and during the war in Syria. What Biden is doing now is the classic policy of containment, even if it is mainly about economic threats.
What Putin achieved in negotiations with Biden
Yet Putin ended the conversation with some fruit. Now he can chalk up a little diplomatic success: he has finally managed to negotiate directly with America on the Ukraine issue. And Berlin and Paris, which since Obama have led the negotiation process on behalf of the West, are now overboard.
Nicholas Busse
Biden informed his European partners about the results of the conversation after its completion, the “Normandy format” receded into the background. This is not good for Europe, because third countries are again dealing with our security issues. As for Putin, he can be pleased, because such an outcome flatters his pride. However, he will have a harder time dealing with Biden than with Merkel and Macron.
From a military point of view, the negotiations between Putin and Biden did not change the situation: it remains tense. Meanwhile, this whole situation is so far only a theoretical crisis, which for the most part is based on (unverifiable) information from the special services. The fact that Russian troops are now concentrated on the border with Ukraine is not disputed even in Russia. However, whether this is preparation for an attack, and even on the entire territory of Ukraine, it is difficult to say, at least from the position of the public interested in this topic.
Strengthening NATO’s eastern frontier
One thing is clear: a large-scale military invasion of a neighboring state would have surpassed all of Putin’s previous hussar antics. From a military point of view, he would face a much stronger Ukrainian army than in 2014. This would no longer be a hybrid operation with “green men”, but a full-fledged war, which would lead to tangible losses for the Russian side as well. Western sanctions have already significantly weakened the Russian economy, but now Putin is at risk of losing access to international payment systems. At the same time, in the first place, he will achieve exactly what he has been trying to prevent for many years: strengthening NATO’s eastern border.
As far as the use of tough military force is concerned, this is far from the “value-oriented” “multipolar” world that the new German government is also seeking to create. After all, Putin wants to get the right to dispose of the political and economic interests of Eastern Europe. He denies the Ukrainians and other peoples who are “lucky” to live in the post-Soviet space, the right to independently control their own destiny.
The West, adhering to the values of freedom, should not, on principle, indulge in such geopolitical machinations. After all, we are not interested in the camp of opponents of liberalism, actively opposing our social model, expanding in Europe. From a strategic point of view, it would also be unreasonable to believe that Putin would be content to subjugate Ukraine.
Nord Stream 2 and Putin’s gas business
The influence of the Soviet Union, the loss of which Putin so regrets, extended all the way to the Fulda Corridor (the territory in the federal state of Hesse on the demarcation line between the Soviet and American occupation zones. – Ed.). The list of countries that he would like to influence is quite long, especially in Europe.
Numerous attempts by Germany to somehow come to an agreement with Putin have failed. Gas imports were supposed to link Russia (to Europe. – Ed.), mutual dependence – to have a pacifying effect. But this did not happen, and Putin’s gas business, on the contrary, helped him finance his revisionist policies.
That is why Nord Stream 2 is a big delusion. Presumably, the EU’s gas demand will not increase in the coming years, but its own production will decline. Russia wants to supply a significant part of the necessary imports, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would be the most modern and most profitable solution. But for seemingly cheap Russian gas, Germany and other European countries are actually paying a high price. After all, they have to impose sanctions and prepare to prevent their supplier from making another aggressive campaign to the West.
By: Nicholas Busse, columnist for the Frankfurter newspaper General newspaper
Without the right to reprint. © Frankfurter General newspaper GmbH, Frankfurt am Main.
Newspaper website Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
The commentary expresses the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the opinion of the Russian editorial office and Deutsche Welle in general.
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